TCU Preview: Can OSU Slow Down the High-Powered Horned Frog Offense?

The Cowboys (13-8, 3-5) are back in Stillwater after a heart-wrenching loss to Arkansas in Fayetteville. Oklahoma State looks to defend home court against TCU who also came up short in the Big 12/SEC Challenge with its 81-78 loss to Vanderbilt on Saturday.

Here’s how to watch

• When: Tuesday, Jan. 30 at 6 p.m.
• Where: Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, Okla.
• TV/crew: ESPNU (Mark Neely, Bryndon Manzer)
• Webcast: ESPN3.com or ESPN app
• Radio: Cowboy Radio Network (Dave Hunziker and John Holcomb)
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 132, XM 381 (OSU radio call)

TCU started Year 2 of Jamie Dixon’s tenure with a 12-0 nonconference run that saw the Frogs climb to a No. 10 ranking. Then came the meat grinder that is college basketball’s best conference.

The Horned Frogs started 1-4 in Big 12 play and have alternated Ws and Ls ever since. Like OSU, they find themselves 3-5 in conference play and, also like OSU, haven’t been able to string together back-to-back wins since it started. The Frogs earned a huge Big Monday win over then-No. 7 West Virginia before falling to a 7-13 Vanderbilt squad over the weekend.

OSU is 11-2 inside GIA, and TCU only has one Big 12 road win (Baylor). Let’s hope neither team bucks their trend.

As always, let’s view this matchup through the lens of KenPom’s Four Factors.

Offense

TCU is No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency, currently the highest-ranked of any team on OSU’s schedule. They are led by Vladimir Brodziansky, the senior forward from Slovakia who’s averaging 15.3 points and 4.9 rebounds per game.

Senior wing Kenrich Williams has his fingerprints all over the TCU offense, averaging 14.5 points, 9.6 rebounds (3.0 offensive boards) and 3.9 assists. Williams also leads his team in win shares and with a box plus/minus of +11.5.

Defense

While the Frogs boast an elite offense, there hasn’t been much for Jamie Dixon to be proud of on defense which has contributed to TCU’s 3-5 start to Big 12 play.

The Frogs play man with some occasional zone thrown in, but nothing they’ve tried has done much to slow teams down. TCU is No. 9 in the Big 12 in scoring defense (allowing 77.5 points per game) and last place in opponent field goal percentage and opponent 3-point percentage.

TCU doesn’t force many turnovers so the Cowboys will need to limit mistakes and can’t afford unforced errors in that department.

Keep an Eye On: Alex Robinson

The junior point guard assumed starting duties after Jaylen Fisher — who still leads the Big 12 in assist-to-turnover ratio — had season-ending knee surgery following the loss to Oklahoma.

Robinson has had his moments, including sniffing triple-double territory with 17 points, nine assists and seven rebounds in the upset win over West Virginia last week. But he’s proven to be turnover-prone throughout his career, unlike Fisher. If the Frogs are to earn just their second Big 12 road win, they’ll need a big game from Robinson.

Key For OSU: Own the Glass

OSU has been out-rebounded on the offensive glass in four consecutive games. That needs to change on Tuesday night. Despite Robinson’s struggles in that department, TCU as a team, does not turn the ball over very often, and we’ve seen OSU struggle to score points in the half court all season.

Winning that rebounding contest is not going to be easy. TCU has one of the nation’s best rebounders in Kenrich Williams, and as a team they not only rank 23rd in offensive rebound percentage but are also effective at limiting offensive boards the other way.

Outlook

The Cowboys have just a 45-percent chance of defending Eddie Sutton Court according to KenPom. With these two teams knotted at 3-5 for seventh place in the league, this is a must win to both avoid the Big 12 basement and for another bullet on the NCAA Tournament resume (the loser, especially if it’s OSU, is going to have an uphill climb to the Big Dance).