Texas Tech Preview: Can OSU Finally Win One on the Road?

The Cowboys (13-6, 3-4), fresh off an upset win over No. 4 Oklahoma head to Lubbock, Texas to face the No. 14 Red Raiders (15-4, 4-3). This will be a homecoming for Texas Tech following an 0-2 road trip including a 70-52 loss to Iowa State in Ames.

Here’s how to watch

• When: Tuesday, Jan. 23 at 6 p.m.

• Where: United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas

• TV/crew: ESPNews (Clay Matvick, Tim Welsh)

• Webcast: ESPN3.com or ESPN app

• Radio: Cowboy Radio Network (Dave Hunziker and John Holcomb)

• Satellite Radio: Sirius 132, XM 199 (TTU radio call)

The Red Raiders are a perfect 12-0 at home and Cowboys have yet to win on the road, now 0-3 in true away games. Can the Cowboys pull a second straight upset?

Let’s see how these two teams stack up as we gaze at them through the lens of KenPom’s Four Factors.

Offense

The Red Raiders have relied mostly on a stingy defense to earn their 15 season wins but don’t discount their offense. Tech is ranked 57th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom and a tick below OSU for the 5th and 6th scoring offenses in the conference. OSU’s defense will need to force turnovers and get back in transition.

Defense

The Red Raiders boast the No. 4 adjusted defense according to KenPom and are allowing just 61.6 points per game (also No. 4 in the nation). They’re also 11th in allowed field goal percentage at 38.9 percent and 31 percent from 3 (No. 27). They do just about everything good on that side of the court.

Chris Beard’s man defense will be intent on getting into passing lanes and forcing the Pokes into turnovers. The Cowboys need to take care of the ball and not waste possessions against a team ranked 13th in opponent effective FG percentage.

Keep an Eye On: Keenan Evans

The senior guard has led the Red Raiders in scoring the last two seasons but is coming off his lowest output in 14 games, when he scored 7 points on 2-of-12 shooting and 0 of 4 from 3.

But if recent history has taught us anything, the Cowboys are prone to give up career nights to Big 12 guards. See Trae Young, Manu Lecomte, Lindell Wigginton, Cartier Diarra. OSU can’t afford to let Evans go off in his homecoming with the Wreck ‘Em faithful at his back.

Key for OSU: Get on the Glass and Get on the floor

Texas Tech is No. 2 in the Big 12 in both rebound margin and turnover margin. As stated above, they don’t give up a lot of easy shots and they don’t tend to lose the turnover battle (only four games out of 19).

Oklahoma State needs all the help it can get to score and offensive rebounds are sometimes its best bet. The Cowboys have won the rebounding battle and offensive rebounding battle in three-straight games. They’ll need to make it four to have a chance at the upset in Lubbock.

No One is Safe in Big 12 Play

The Big 12 slate is a gauntlet and Chris Beard’s team is not immune to a hitting a snag or or two. After starting 15-2 and 4-1 in conference play, the then-No. 8 Red Raiders dropped two in a row by a combined 27 points.

Mike Boynton called the Big 12, “the best college basketball that you’ll see anywhere,”  following his team’s Bedlam win. “I think there are 10 NCAA Tournament teams. I believe that. I think that anybody in our league can get into the NCAA Tournament and win a game. Anybody.”

Unfortunately, not all 10 of the Big 12’s teams will going dancing this March and this game is important for both Tech and OSU. Tech desperately needs a win on Tuesday night to avoid a three-game skid and Oklahoma State needs to be able to string together back-to-back performances and show that it can win on the road.

“It’s not like we’ve found this great rhythm and consistency playing on a night in and night out basis,” said Boynton. “We haven’t figured out this road thing yet. We talked to our team. We don’t get to play any NCAA Tournament games in this building, unfortunately.

“So we’ve got to go prove that we are capable of going and finding a way to win on the road. We’ve got to learn from this, put it behind us and start getting ready for a really talented and tough Texas Tech team on Tuesday.”

Outlook

KenPom gives the Red Raiders an 85-percent chance of protecting home court on Tuesday night. While the Pokes are the definite underdog, I give them more than a 15-percent chance. If the OSU can control the TOs and clean up the glass, they’ve got a puncher’s chance of stringing together back-to-back conference wins for the first time this season.