Ranking the Five Most Challenging Games on OSU’s 2018 Schedule

Ah the doldrums of summer. While we wait for the 2018 college football season to actually kick off a few months from now, there’s no reason we can’t look ahead and begin to mentally prepare ourselves for the future.

With a new starting quarterback, new top targets, and a completely different defense on the way, there are plenty of things to be interested in with Oklahoma State’s 2018 football season.

Especially a schedule that poses some obvious challenges. With that in mind, let’s look at the five most challenging games on OSU’s 12-game schedule.

5. Boise State

Let me begin by saying that while I am one of the most vocal critics of Oklahoma State’s scheduling practice, I don’t hate this year’s nonconference schedule. With so many unknowns about this team heading into the season, it’s a perfect schedule for breaking in a new starting QB and defensive scheme.

You only have to leave the confines of Boone Pickens Stadium once in the first six weeks, and that’s to go to Lawrence, Kansas. The Cowboys open with an FCS opponent in Missouri State and follow that up with a South Alabama team they beat 44-7 on the road last year.

All of that being said, OSU gets their first big challenge of the season when Boise State comes to Stillwater in Week 3.

College football’s original Goliath slayers return a lot from a team that went 11-3 and won the Mountain West in 2017.

Qaurterback Brett Rypien is back for his senior season. While he loses his top receiver Cedrick Wilson, and three of his top four, Boise returns last year’s No. 2 receiver and some young talent.

Also back is last year’s leading rusher Alexander Mattison, who had 1,086 yards and 12 touchdowns on 212 carries. He was also the fifth-leading pass catcher with 284 yards and one touchdown on 28 catches.

On defense, the Bronchos had eight freshmen and seven sophomores in the rotation last season, but still finished 16th in the country in takeaways (26) and 22nd overall in total defense. Now a year older, you’d expect the defense to take a step forward, especially in the secondary which was very productive despite their youth last year.

This will be a test for an Oklahoma State team likely still trying to figure themselves out early in the season. It’s a winnable game, and not one that has to define their season, but I’d be shocked if the final score wasn’t close, even in Stillwater.

4. Texas

Look, I don’t think “Texas is back” either. But after the Longhorns nearly pulled off the upset in Austin last year, I’d be shocked if OSU rolled past them in 2018.

On offense it’s expected that Sam Ehlinger gets the start this season. While he’s had “moments” he’s has far from lived up to the expectations of the Longhorn fan base. That being said, whether it’s Ehlinger or Shane Buechele behind center, both will get to play behind a sturdy offensive line.

Outside of quarterback, there are plenty of questions. There isn’t a sure thing at running back, though I’d expect Cal transfer Tre Watson to be solid.

At receiver, Texas returns its top two guys from last season in juniors Collin Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey, but not much behind them experience-wise.

Then there’s the defense, that held the nation’s two most prolific offenses — Oklahoma and Oklahoma State — to under 30 points, and allowed a Missouri team that was averaging 51.3 points per game during a six-game win streak, to score just 16.

The Longhorns lose a lot of their best position players, including Poona Ford, DeShon Elliot, and Malik Jefferson, but return most of the two-deep. With the level of talent in Austin right now, I don’t think the losses are going to hurt as much as others do.

ESPN’s FPI rankings give Oklahoma State a 53.1 percent chance to win this game, which is basically a toss-up. And while this game is at home, need I remind you that of Oklahoma State’s six wins in the last eight meetings, both losses came in the house that Boone built.

If Tom Herman is the answer for Texas, then there’s plenty of reason to believe they’ll take a step forward in Year 2. That alone is reason enough to be scared of this game.

3. at TCU

If this game were earlier in the season, I’d probably had made it No. 5. But by the end of the season, I fear this TCU team is going to be good.

Toss in a talented quarterback in Shawn Robinson who had a solid (though not exactly earth-shattering) start against Texas Tech last season, a defense that while young, might be Gary Patterson’s most talented ever, and put the matchup in Fort Worth as the final regular season game between the two teams, and this game has “L” written all over on it.

Two of the Horned Frogs top pass catchers from last season return in Jalen Reagor and KaVontae Turpin, so too does top rusher Darius Anderson and third-leading rusher Sewo Olonilua.

Now, you could say a lot of the same things about OSU. Replacing a starting QB, a young but talented defense, top rusher and a couple talented receivers returning. Plus, you’d also expect OSU to be playing their best ball at the end of the season.

Oklahoma State’s defense is a complete mystery until we see it on the field. Gary Patterson’s? I expect his defense to be playing their best by November, and with as much talent as he has this season. That’s a scary thought.

2. at Kansas State

Outside of Oklahoma, no opponent on the schedule ever concerns me more than Kansas State. Add in the fact that this is a road game and I have it circled as a loss in my predictions.

This year, Kansas State returns two of the three quarterbacks that started games last season — junior Alex Delton and sophomore Skylar Thompson (who led the upset of Oklahoma State last year). While neither has separated himself enough to be named the starter, I would be surprised if both didn’t see the field this season.

Also returning for the offense are all three leading running backs, two of four primary receivers (thankfully that doesn’t include Byron Pringle), and every starting offensive lineman.

That bodes well for an offense that averaged 33 points per game over it’s last six games last season which included the aforementioned upset over Oklahoma State, a throttling of UCLA, and a win over Iowa State.

On the other side of the ball, most of the two-deep returns. Last season, Kansas State’s defense suffered a TON of injuries. Keeping players healthy alone will make this year’s unit better.

That being said, a number of the defense’s top playmakers are gone especially on the line, including linebacker Jayd Kirby, end Tanner Wood, and tackle Will Geary.

Forget players and stats for a minute. Mike Gundy may be 5-3 against Bill Snyder in his second stint, but the Cowboys’ average margin of victory in those wins is just 5.8 points. When Kansas State wins? The Wildcats’ win by an average of 17.6 points.

Kansas State has actually outscored the Cowboys overall in those eight games 291-272.

The point is, Bill Snyder is magic, and he seems to be able to weave it against Oklahoma State no matter who is favored. I don’t know who will win, but I have a feeling this game will come down to the final possession (or OSU gets blown out).

1. at Oklahoma

It doesn’t matter where this game is played, who is at quarterback for either team, or any of the stats or roster. Until Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State can beat their in-state rival with more regularity it’s going to be impossible to predict a victory.

And that makes it the most difficult game on the schedule.

On offense, Baker Mayfield is gone. So too is Mark Andrews. But the Sooners return plenty of offensive weapons including running back Rodney Anderson and receivers CeeDee Lamb and Marquise Brown. They also return three all-conference players on the offensive line.

There’s still some debate as to who is going to play quarterback, though I can’t imagine Kyler Murray would have stuck around Norman if he wasn’t sure he was going to get the nod over Austin Kendall.

On defense, there is a lot of talent, but there is also Mike Stoops returning as defensive coordinator, so who knows. Not that that’s helped Oklahoma State any in the past.

And while Oklahoma State has a trip to OU sandwiched between a road trip to Baylor and a home game against West Virginia, the Sooners get OSU at home a week after a trip to Lubbock, and before a game against the Jayhawks in Norman.

Of course this is the most difficult game on the schedule. It’s going to be so every year, at least until Gundy can win a couple more Bedlams.