The Fourth Down Play That Decided OSU-Baylor, and Why It Was Smart to Go for It

With one minute and 37 seconds remaining in the fourth and final frame Saturday, Oklahoma State led Baylor 31-28 and Mike Gundy had a decision to make: Go for it on fourth and 3 from the 36-yard line in Baylor territory, or try to pin the Bears deep and dare them to win it on an expiring clock with no timeouts left.

What resulted was the former, as you well know by now. Dillon Stoner went in motion across the formation as Taylor Cornelius fielded the snap, and No. 14 rolled right and was almost immediately swarmed by a crowd of Baylor defenders. The primary target on the play seemed to be Jelani Woods, who was sweeping across the formation, but he was caught by a Baylor defensive lineman as he was entering his route.

“Once I knew we were going for it, you want to try to play to the quarterback’s strength,” said OC Mike Yurcich. “We’d been running the ball out of the same formation and motion. Corndog, with his ability to throw on the run, we called a naked play because it suits him best. We hadn’t called that play all day, and it was a good complement to what we were running.”

Cornelius couldn’t connect with Woods as drawn up and didn’t have time to make another read. Instead of chucking it out of bounds, he took a critical sack that gave Baylor, which already was going to have good field position if OSU didn’t convert, an even better look at the end zone.

“Well, you’re on the, what, 34 or something like that. You’re in fourth and three. You get a chance to get a first down, the game’s over,” Gundy said of his decision to go for it. “If you punt it, they are going to get it on the 20. Obviously it didn’t — those 14 yards at that time didn’t make a difference, but I would have liked for Taylor to have thrown the ball away, is what I would have liked to happen on that particular play.”

The turnover on downs led to an eight-play, 55-yard drive that culminated in a Baylor score — and dagger — less than 90 seconds later.

Would OSU have been wiser to take a different path? The alternatives, as Gundy alluded to, were not great. For OSU, which connected on only one of its three field goal attempts on a gusty afternoon, it would have been a 53-yard field goal attempt from its position on the field. Punting it may have been a viable option, but considering OSU had a punt blocked for a TD earlier in the game, it too carried some risk.

So why not go for it on fourth and try to ice it?

Not only was it the most logical decision, but it was the right one. Gundy loves to point to numbers and statistics when explaining away his decisions, and this one was backed up by convincing evidence that it was the right call.

In fact, OSU was 2 of 2 on fourth down against Baylor on the day before failing to convert on that play. On the season? The Pokes before Saturday were 12 of 17 — a 70.6 conversion rate — which ranks 13th in the FBS.

Recent fourth down data for OSU suggests going for it was probably right, too. In all but two years over the last five, the Pokes have completed 50 percent or more of their fourth down attempts — including stellar numbers in 2016 and 2018. Maybe in hindsight a different play had worked better, but you know what they say about hindsight …

Additionally, the overall math based on recent college football history says this is the right call.

“The fourth down call is one call,” Gundy lamented. “We lost the game because we had 130 yards in penalties and got a blocked punt for a touchdown …”

The failed fourth down attempt wasn’t the reason OSU lost, to be clear. Nor was taking the sack when it should’ve been tossed into Section 38D. Those were several of many reasons that, when added up, made it clear OSU stacked the deck against itself by shooting its own foot time and again in Waco.

It’s clear the play call may be criticized and the decision to go for it may be regrettable in hindsight, but isn’t this what we want from a coach who has perpetually played it conservative in big games? Last week Gundy let it hang against Texas and he was rewarded with an all-timer.

While it didn’t work out this time around, converting on fourth could have been a wad of gauze stuffed into a self-wounded OSU team. It was the right decision to try to patch things up and put Baylor away, even if the end result is not what OSU fans had in mind.