Three Things Mike Gundy has to Evaluate in the QB Decision (After Oregon State)

After months of evaluating Spencer Sanders’ high school tape, Hawai’i football games, and every drop of hearsay that leaks out of Stillwater, there will finally be a new data point to evaluate this week: game performance.

The depth chart and Mike Gundy’s weekly presser tell us somehow, reps will be split and both quarterbacks will see live-action, snaps, and tangible outcomes for all to see and form opinions from.

As of Friday’s press conference:

“Nothing changed,” Gundy said. “Both of them are getting better every day. We have a really good plan in place — it’s not something that I’m going to discuss publicly at this time.” [ESPN]

What qualities, what eye-test factors, what numbers do we need to see to proclaim a favorite (or starter?) at this point?

1. Dru Brown Has to be Two-Wins Better

Call it a handicap, call it overvaluing recruiting stars, call it overweighting future seasons, but a rational decision can’t just look at here and now and say that’s all that matters. Let me say that again, right now isn’t all that matters. 

How different is our current situation if Spencer Sanders got the TCU game and Dru Brown got the bowl game? How much more do we understand the physical giftings (Sanders eats safeties for breakfast) and the intangibles (is Dru the second coming of George Patton?) The different evaluations and conversations, the reps that wouldn’t be split could be material.

All of that to say those decisions are a sunk cost but it’s ignorant to ignore the lesson. If Dru Brown is nearly dead even with Spencer Sanders, you’re telling every senior next year that you could care less about their team, their chances of winning. It goes without saying but a snap, a series, a quarter invested in Sanders, is highly likely to pay dividends next season.

If pulling a name from a hat to play quarterback is likely to result in the same win total this year, why wouldn’t you play the player that results in compounding returns?

Therefore, my number is two games. If Dru Brown is the difference between eight wins and six, nine wins and seven, and by all means, 10 and eight wins, play him. I’ll get behind whatever it is that makes him two wins better and understand. I won’t love it but I’ll ride the train and “Go Pokes”.

2. What Do the Numbers Say?

We can look at points per drive, touchdowns, incompletions, and interceptions. We can’t Clint Chelf-against-Mississippi State-in-2013 this.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4IQorBKGYM&w=1366&h=480]

Now that we’ve all enjoyed the fact that OSU beat Dak Prescott, but the numbers caveat is that let’s give each guy a chance to prove himself.

Now, who has better numbers at the end of the day? Give me two more touchdowns (a combination of rushing and passing) than turnovers. I want to see read options with both quarterbacks and Chuba Hubbard and see how those plays turn out yardage.

Bonus stats to observe: how many receivers does each QB connect with?

3. Who Uses All Parts of the Field?

A good offense can do multiple things well, forcing a defense to account for multiple threats and exposing vulnerabilities. If Marcus Keyes and Johnny Wilson can blow open four yards of turf consistently for Chuba Hubbard, theoretically, Jelani Woods and Dillon Stoner could set up tents in the linebackers spots and gash the defense.

Now, given the offensive constraints, the talent on the field with him, who utilizes playmakers best? Who produces more yards with Tylan Wallace? Does Wallace have better chemistry with one than the other?

Probably the best way to communicate this is who can “Mason Rudolph” (verb) the offense and who Daxx Garman’s (another verb) it. Rudolph had a way of breathing life into the unit — being able to hit guys all over the field with intermediate and long throws.  It felt like Rudolph rarely met a third-down he couldn’t convert by hitting a receiver just past the sticks regardless of the distance. Garman was an admirable player but a one-trick pony — chunk it deep or turnover on downs.

One of my favorites. This is NFL throw. Anticipation, Ball thrown before MA clears LB. Big 4th down conversion. pic.twitter.com/lVxyuQKDVi

— Adam Lunt (@AdamLunt817) May 7, 2017

Can one of these guys hit guys outside the numbers, down the field, make a guy miss in space, and hit the timing routes? What about three of the four? That’s the guy who needs to take the reins. Or maybe, the guy who will be able to do that by November needs to take them.