Three Things to Know ahead of Oklahoma State’s Road Game against Iowa State

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The Cowboys and Cyclones are set for a tilt under the lights in Ames on Halloween night.

Oklahoma State just got right in a big win over Colorado at home and, at 3-1, is in a tie for second place in the Big 12. Iowa State, on the other hand, is just 1-3 in league play. Though all three of those losses came against ranked opponents.

Let’s take a look at the matchup and three things to consider before kickoff.

More Talk about Third Downs

It seems like we’ll be forever discussing third downs with this OSU team. But this week the Cowboys defense will face the Big 12’s worst third-down offense.

Iowa State ranks last in the conference in third-down conversion rate at 29.4%. That’s No. 135 out of 138 FBS teams. The only time the Cyclones have done better than 21% on third downs in a conference game was in their win against West Virginia (45.5%). The Mountaineers just so happen to be the Big 12’s second-worst third-down defense on average.

On the opposite end of the field, the Cowboys are still struggling on this front as well. They come in converting 35.8% of their third down attempts which is good for 14th in the league. ISU is fifth in third-down defense but has been worse against Big 12 competition. They just gave up 7-of-14 to Arizona in a 39-3 blowout.

The Cowboys have an opportunity to get better at sustaining drives, but if their defense can’t get off the field against this Cyclones’ offense, that’s a further indictment.

Look Out for Aiden Flora

Also at the top of the white board for defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity is sophomore running back Aiden Flora.

Flora is the No. 10 ranked running back by Pro Football Focus with an overall rating of 88.3. He’s the Big 12’s third-leading rusher at 102.3 yards per game and has seven total TDs, plus two more that he’s thrown.

“He’s throwing passes, they pitch it to him, he throws it, he runs it, he’s the punt returner,” said OSU head coach Eric Morris. “He just has so many roles on this team. I think mid-season All-American for a reason. A guy that has definitely produced at a high level.

“He’s one of those guys, the heartbeat of a team. Somebody that has the attitude of like a (Cam) Skattebo or somebody like that that just brings so much toughness to them.”

Like Morris mentioned, they will do whatever they can to get Flora the ball. In a very random stat, Flora actually ranks the highest of all qualifying FBS running backs with a passing grade of 85.2. That’s due to his attempting two passes in the win over West Virginia. He completed both attempts for 48 yards and two touchdowns.

Also impressive is that on 102 handoffs, 13 catches and seven punt returns, he’s not fumbled the ball once this season.

Flora is coming off his worst game of the season, just 36 yards on 12 carries at Arizona. But if he can rebound on his home turf, it will go a long way in helping the Cyclones keep things interesting against the Pokes.

It’s Always Close

One of the craziest things I found looking through the recent history between these two teams is just how close their games have been over the last 10 meetings. Not a single game between the Pokes and Clones has been decided by more than a touchdown since 2014.

OSU is 6-4 in these games but the average margin of victory for either team is just 5.7 points. Again, the largest margin during that span is seven.

The Cowboys look set to buck this trend on Saturday, all caveats about Ames included. The Cowboys currently lead the Big 12 in scoring offense, averaging 40 points per game while the Cyclones are 14th out of 16, managing just 25.9 on the scoreboard. Aside from their 45 in a win over West Virginia, the Cyclones haven’t exceeded 17 points in any single game in conference play.