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After Three Years with Boston, How Good can Marcus Smart Become?

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Marcus Smart has now spent three years as a professional basketball player for the Boston Celtics. Stunningly, he is now the longest-tenured player in Boston. Smart may or may not have met your expectations in years 1-3, but I’m curious about how good he can become in the future.

With a sturdy 6’4, 220 lb frame, Smart is built like a linebacker. He’s been able to bully opposing point guards defensively. Smart has active hands and a high defensive awareness, and can adequately match up to positions 1-4. Smart was one of the Celtics’ best defenders last year, and he finished the season tied for 10th in the league in steal percentage and tied for 11th in steals per game.

Offensively, Smart has seen a slow increase in point production, but he isn’t an elite offensive guard, and his three-point percentage has fluctuated since his jump to the NBA. Smart was still able to score using his defense and his size against smaller point guards, as more than half of Smart’s points per game came off of turnovers and points in the paint.

So what is Smart’s ceiling? He’s been a solid role player for Boston, but can he become an elite player in the Eastern conference?

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight database has a statistical formula known as the CARMELO (Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization). This projects the future potential of NBA players. Without getting too much into the analytical verbiage, here’s the formula’s findings.

CARMELO projects Smart not only as a future all-star, but it places Smart’s future value at a high peg. It also compares him closest to Lionel Hollins in his early career. The comparison makes sense, as the former All-Star and two-time All-Defensive team member was a solid defender for the Portland Trailblazers early in his career, although he was never known as a sharpshooter.

Another astute comparison that a Celtics site recently made is Smart’s statistical similarities to Jimmy Butler in the first three years of his career. Butler and Smart have very similar per-36-minute stats through their first three years. Butler, who received a bump in playing time in his fourth year, saw a significant increase in production in his fourth year. Smart, who has been a sixth man for Boston, has an opportunity to carve out a bigger role in Boston with Avery Bradley’s recent departure.

One thing that statistics can’t always measure is a player’s hustle, and Smart carved out his niche as a hard worker. He frequently makes plays by diving on balls or deflecting passes, and he’s in the league’s top 10 in charges drawn. Smart has quickly become a favorite of both the Boston fans and the Celtics’ broadcasting team for his work ethic and defense.

And the feeling is mutual. Smart has often complimented the city and the coaching staff for how they’ve helped progress himself as a player.

“First off, this fanbase is incredible,” Smart told reporters recently. “The energy that they give off every night, night in and night out, is remarkable. And then playing under [head coach] Brad [Stevens]… who’s understanding the game more and more. He’s learning, and he’s becoming one of the greatest coaches in this league.”

Stevens had just as much praise for the former Poke. In a podcast from last year, Stevens called Smart as “advanced as any guy” he’s ever coached on defense.”Whether that’s guarding [Paul] Millsap for eight minutes or guarding [Kristaps] Porzingis for six minutes or guarding the point guard for the next four, he’s just a guy that will do anything you ask to help his team win,” Stevens said.

Smart is a already a solid player, but with more playing time next season, his progression could increase more than it already has.

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