Wait, Oklahoma State Can’t Get Into the College Football Playoff, Right?

With Bedlam 2017, Oklahoma State’s College Football Playoff dreams died, didn’t they? I would have (and still would) bet a lot of money that OSU will not be in the playoff committee’s final four. But after looking at it for the past few days, there is a path.

I think.

Let’s roll through how Oklahoma State would get there by presuming two things. First, TCU loses to Tech. Second, Oklahoma State wins out and beats OU in the Big 12 Championship game.

I think OSU’s clearest path presuming those two things take place is for Alabama, Miami and Wisconsin to win out. Now let’s take care of every team ahead of OSU starting with No. 2 Clemson.

Clemson: If Miami wins out, Clemson would have two losses (Syracuse and Miami in the ACC title) and no conference titles to OSU’s two losses and a conference title. They’re out (unless someone is injured).

OU: Would have two losses (Iowa State, OSU) and no conference titles. They’re out. My gosh, how sweet would this scenario be?!

Auburn: Would have three losses (LSU, Clemson, Bama) and would not have played for its conference title. Out.

Georgia: Would have two losses (Auburn, Alabama) and no conference title. Out.

Notre Dame: Has two losses currently and still plays at Stanford. I don’t think OSU would need ND to lose there but they might. Let’s give them the L just to be safe. Out.

Ohio State: Would have three losses (OU, Iowa, Wisconsin). I presume that’s enough to bump them down to 10th or so. Or it might move them up to fifth. Who knows. Out.

Penn State: Has two losses (Michigan State, Ohio State). Oklahoma State does not need them to lose again. Out.

USC: This is an issue. They play UCLA and either Washington, Washington State or Stanford in the Pac-12 title game (which they’ll probably win). A UCLA loss this weekend would be monumental. So would three-loss Stanford running the table on Cal, Notre Dame and USC.

Washington and Washington State could both be an issue for the Pokes as well. Both are currently ranked behind OSU, but both could end up 11-2 Pac-12 champs with wins over each other and USC in the last two weeks. Not good. Go Stanford.

So as you can see, the path is narrow and a bit complex, but it’s not infeasible as long as Alabama, Wisconsin and Miami win out. That’s probably not going to happen, though, and of course all of this is a moot point if TCU beats Texas Tech.

Here’s what my little exercise looked like on 538. Oklahoma State’s chances of the CFP go up to 37 percent if they win out and TCU loses this weekend.

Throw in Alabama winning out and a USC loss to UCLA, and now we’re talking.

A two-loss team has never gotten into the CFP, and I don’t expect OSU to be the first. But it’s fun to dream (and it’s even more fun to think about getting another shot at the Sooners).

Here are the Bovada odds for teams getting in the CFP.

Alabama: 1-7
Clemson: 2-5
Oklahoma: 1-2
Miami: 5-7
Wisconsin: 3-2
Georgia: 2-1
Auburn: 2-1
Ohio State: 3-1
Michigan: 10-1
USC: 10-1
Penn State: 15-1
TCU: 15-1
Notre Dame: 20-1
Oklahoma State: 20-1
Washington: 20-1

So I guess it’s not inconceivable, but it would also likely be the craziest thing to happen in the existence of the CFP.