Way-Too-Early Game-By-Game Predictions for Oklahoma State’s 2026 Season

After taking a stab at predicting Oklahoma State’s offensive depth chart on Monday, let’s continue way-too-early week by predicting the Cowboys’ recently released schedule.

The Big 12 released the 2026 football schedules last week, meaning we now know the order in which the Cowboys’ games will be played in Year 1 of the Eric Morris era.

The Cowboys have gone a combined 4-20 over the past two seasons with no Big 12 win. That comes despite me picking the Cowboys to go 10-2 in 2024 and 7-5 in 2025. So, uh, take these rankings with a mound of salt — especially considering this group of Cowboys hasn’t even had an official practice yet.*

*I reserve the right for my preseason predictions to look totally different than this when OSU starts releasing practice videos of Drew Mestemaker slinging the pill around the Sherman E. Smith Training Center.

at Tulsa (Sept. 5)

Thoughts: The Tulsa game essentially felt like the end of OSU’s 2025 season despite it coming in mid-September.

I think second-year coach Tre Lamb has brought a refreshed energy to the Tulsa program, but I also think a well-funded OSU squad with a quarterback of Drew Mestemaker’s stature should have no issues with the Golden Hurricane. I think this one looks more like the teams’ 2024 meeting than the 2025 one.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 45, Tulsa 17

OSU Record: 1-0

Oregon (Sept. 12)

Thoughts: As quickly as this game started last season, it ended. After beating OSU 69-3, the Ducks went on to make it to the semifinal of the CFP.

Ducks QB Dante Moore is set to return, but the Cowboys’ roster appears to be in a much better spot than it was.

Although I’m not ready to say the Cowboys overcame a 66-point deficit through the portal window, I do think this game is infinitely more competitive than it was in Eugene last year.

Prediction: Oregon 38, Oklahoma State 24

OSU Record: 1-1

Murray State (Sept. 19)

Thoughts: Murray State went 1-11 in the FCS last season with its lone win coming in the season finale.

I need not say much more, new-look Pokes big here.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 56, Murray State 10

OSU Record: 2-1

at West Virginia (Sept. 26)

Thoughts: The Cowboys open Big 12 play with a trip to Morgantown — a place they’ve honestly had a lot of success in over the years. The Cowboys have won five straight at Milan Puskar Stadium with their last loss there coming back in 2013.

WVU went 4-8 in Rich Rodriguez’s return to the Country Roads with the Mountaineers’ biggest win likely being that Backyard Brawl W against Pitt.

Rodriguez has won most anywhere he’s been. So long as his hard-edge philosophy still works in the NIL era, I think the Mountaineers will be headed in the right direction, but I certainly don’t think they’ll be as good as OSU in 2026.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, West Virginia 21

OSU Record: 3-1

vs. UCF (Oct. 10)

Thoughts: After a bye week to start the month of October, the Cowboys will welcome UCF to Stillwater.

The Cowboys held a rare halftime lead on the Knights in 2025 — in Orlando no less.

247Sports considers’ UCF’s portal class the worst in the Big 12.

Given the 2025 Cowboys hung with UCF and the 2026 Cowboys project to be much better, give me the Pokes.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 42, UCF 28

OSU Record: 4-1

at Houston (Oct. 17)

Thoughts: Willie Fritz is a dang good ball coach, and playing your games in Houston certainly comes with advantages on the recruiting trail.

Houston went 10-3 last season — Fritz’s second with the Cougars. They were ranked as highly as No. 22 in the AP Poll and return quarterback Conner Weigman and signed Keisean Henderson, a QB who 247Sports lists as the No. 3 player in all of the 2026 recruiting class.

All that is to say that I think Houston is quietly a program on the rise. After being more than bullish on OSU predictions the past two seasons, I’m going to practice some conservativeness here and say the Cougars catch the Cowboys.

Prediction: Houston 38, Oklahoma State 35

OSU Record: 4-2

Colorado (Oct. 24)

Thoughts: Colorado didn’t look so hot in its first year without Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, going 3-9 with those wins coming against Delaware, Wyoming and Iowa State.

Prime picked up a few nice pieces in the portal, but I think the Pokes did better there.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Colorado 24

OSU Record: 5-2

at Iowa State (Oct. 31)

Thoughts: Something about the Cowboys having to play in Ames on Halloween feels … well, spooky.

With that being said, the Cyclones essentially got their entire team swiped from Penn State late in the cycle, and ISU probably needs at least another year to get back to the top half of the league, where I think the Cowboys will reside in 2026.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 41, Iowa State 21

OSU Record: 6-2

at Kansas State (Nov. 7)

Thoughts: Both of these programs are going through a coaching transition this offseason, as the Wildcats welcome back former quarterback and offensive coordinator Collin Klein.

This game also features the 2026 Cowboys playing probably the two best Cowboys from the 2025 roster, with Rodney Fields Jr. and Wendell Gregory transferring to Manhattan.

K-State has, I think, a fairly favorable schedule to this point,  meaning this could be a rather big game for both schools at the start of November. Given OSU’s past two trips to Manhattan have resulted in a combined score of 90-20 in K-State’s favor, I think the Wildcats edge out the Pokes in an all-timer.

Prediction: Kansas State 35, Oklahoma State 28

OSU Record: 6-3

vs. Texas Tech (Nov. 14)

Thoughts: The Red Raiders have quickly risen to the top of the Big 12 in this NIL era, and this portal window only further solidified that.

Quarterback was viewed as a weakness for Tech in 2025, so the Red Raiders went out an grabbed Brendan Sorsby from Cincinnati, who was considered a Top 3 quarterback in the portal.

Similar to the Oregon game, I think the Cowboys are much more competitive here, but here in January, I’m not ready to say they’ve overtaken Tech quite yet.

Prediction: Texas Tech 31, Oklahoma State 27

OSU Record: 6-4

at Arizona State (Nov. 21)

Thoughts: So now I’ve got the Pokes on a two-game losing streak headed out to Tempe.

The Sun Devils lost quarterback Sam Leavitt to LSU this offseason, but they also have the Big 12’s third-ranked transfer class, per 247Sports, brining in two four-star receivers, a four-star running back and a four-star linebacker.

I think this has the chance to be an early signature road win for Morris in his OSU tenure.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 35, Arizona State 31

OSU Record: 7-4

Kansas (Nov. 28)

Thoughts: Jalon Daniels was at Kansas forever. The 2026 season will be the Jayhawks’ first without him since 2019.

KU ranked in the bottom half of the league’s portal rankings on 247Sports and On3. That paired with the fact that KU went 5-7 last season and OSU looks much better than it was a year ago, give me the Pokes cruising to a win on Senior Day.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 42, Kansas 28

OSU Record: 8-4