Football
What are the Most Impressive Offensive and Defensive Performances in the Big 12 in 2017?
I’ve been playing around with some new stats of late — I introduced them last week as PF Offense and PF Defense. Essentially I’m looking at Big 12-only drive numbers and then adjusting them for how good your opponent is on offense or defense.
For example, OU averages 3.42 points per drive in Big 12 games (I have taken out 0-play drives but left in end-of-half drives — because this is the Big 12 where you can score in 20 seconds!) So if OU gets 10 drives against, say, Texas their expected scoring total would be 34.2 points. If Texas holds them under that then that’s a good day for the Texas defense. If not, then it’s not a good day for the Texas defense.
On the flip side, if Texas’ defense averages 1.00 points per drive given up and faces 10 OU drives and OU scores 30 points on Texas, OU has exceeded its expected value of 10 by 20 points.
It’s all based on how many points you score per drive and how many drives you get per game. Because I’ve collected every drive of the Big 12 season (all 979 of them so far), we can look at which units had the most impressive performances so far this year.
Let’s start on offense where the Oklahoma teams, even when you adjust for opponent, have dominated. Here are the 10 best offensive performances so far this season.
It should be noted that actual column might not equal the actual points scored. I just use a value of 7 for TDs and don’t take into account missed XPs or two-point conversions.
Best Big 12 Offensive Performance — 2017
Team | Opponent | Opp. PPD | Drives | Expected | Actual | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma | OSU | 2.27 | 15 | 34.1 | 62 | 27.9 |
OSU | Iowa State | 1.41 | 15 | 21.2 | 48 | 26.8 |
OSU | Baylor | 2.67 | 13 | 34.7 | 59 | 24.3 |
Oklahoma | TCU | 1.32 | 13 | 17.1 | 38 | 20.9 |
Oklahoma | Iowa State | 1.41 | 10 | 14.1 | 31 | 16.9 |
Oklahoma | KSU | 2.28 | 11 | 25.1 | 41 | 15.9 |
OSU | TCU | 1.32 | 12 | 15.8 | 31 | 15.2 |
Oklahoma | Tech | 2.60 | 13 | 33.9 | 49 | 15.1 |
TCU | OSU | 2.27 | 13 | 29.5 | 44 | 14.5 |
Oklahoma | Texas | 1.39 | 12 | 16.7 | 30 | 13.3 |
Oklahoma State has two of the top three offensive performances of the season, but OU has four of the top six. That Iowa State showing last week? Yeah, it was the second-best offensive output of the year. #FireYurcich.
Now the best defensive performances.
Best Big 12 Defensive Performance — 2017
Team | Opponent | Opp. PPD | Drives | Expected Points | Actual | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas | OSU | 2.93 | 15 | 44.0 | 13 | -31.0 |
Texas | Baylor | 1.94 | 17 | 32.9 | 7 | -25.9 |
Iowa State | TCU | 1.99 | 12 | 23.9 | 0 | -23.9 |
TCU | KSU | 2.09 | 13 | 27.2 | 6 | -21.2 |
Texas | Iowa State | 2.00 | 13 | 26.0 | 7 | -19.0 |
Iowa State | Kansas | 1.05 | 18 | 18.9 | 0 | -18.9 |
TCU | Texas | 1.63 | 14 | 22.9 | 7 | -15.9 |
Iowa State | Tech | 2.47 | 12 | 29.6 | 14 | -15.6 |
OSU | Texas | 1.63 | 15 | 24.5 | 10 | -14.5 |
TCU | Iowa State | 2.00 | 14 | 28.0 | 14 | -14.0 |
The best defensive performance of the season goes to Texas against Oklahoma State. I think we can all attest to that. OSU has three of the top 14 performances of the season (against Texas, WVU and Baylor). It also has one of the worst (against TCU). Actually, let’s take a look at the bottom five in each category.
First, the most anemic offensive performances.
Worst Big 12 Offensive Performance — 2017
Team | Opponent | Opp. PPD | Drives | Expected | Actual | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas | Baylor | 2.67 | 13 | 34.7 | 9 | -25.7 |
Kansas | Iowa State | 1.41 | 18 | 25.4 | 0 | -25.4 |
Kansas | Tech | 2.60 | 17 | 44.3 | 20 | -24.3 |
Texas | OSU | 2.27 | 15 | 34.1 | 10 | -24.1 |
Kansas | TCU | 1.32 | 13 | 17.1 | 0 | -17.1 |
Kansas, my goodness! Send help!
Worst Big 12 Defensive Performance — 2017
Team | Opponent | Opp. PPD | Drives | Expected | Actual | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baylor | OSU | 2.93 | 13 | 38.1 | 59 | 20.9 |
OSU | TCU | 1.99 | 13 | 25.9 | 44 | 18.1 |
KSU | Texas | 1.63 | 14 | 22.9 | 41 | 18.1 |
WVU | Kansas | 1.05 | 16 | 16.8 | 34 | 17.2 |
Kansas | Tech | 2.47 | 17 | 41.9 | 59 | 17.1 |
All of this can be debated of course. Was Baylor giving up 59 to Oklahoma State a great offensive performance by the Pokes or one of the worst defensive performances of the year by the Bears? The data says both.
But I thought it was a fun look at which games have stood out through seven weeks of Big 12 football in 2017. And it makes you start looking at specific games (notably what OSU did last week in Ames with its best receiver hobbled) a little differently.
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