What NIT Records Could Mean for OSU’s Chances to Reach New York

Oklahoma State is off to a 1-0 start in the 2018 National Invitational Tournament after holding off Florida Gulf Coast 80-68. They’ll welcome Stanford to Stillwater on Monday at 6 p.m. (which is just about the worst game day/time combo ever).

So far this year’s NIT has been the least interesting, with zero true upsets in the first round (No. 5 Washington beat No. Boise State, but the game was played at UW). That’s compared to last year which was the wildest of the last decade. In 2016, one 1-seed, three 2-seeds, and all four 3-seeds lost in the first round.

While those are the last two years, the last decade can shed some light on the Cowboys chances in this post-season tournament.

Oklahoma State is the 2-seed in the Southern California bracket. Based on NIT data over the last decade, OSU is in the best-seed-situation to not only make the final four, but to reach the title and win it

Obviously, being a top-seed is beneficial. For one thing, you get to play, at worst, your first two games at home. So it’s not surprising that 1 and 2 seeds have the most trips to New York and most title game appearances.

But you’ll notice, once you reach MSG, it’s almost a toss up. OSU has been good on the road this season. Along with the wins at Kansas, at West Virginia, and at Iowa State, the Cowboys lost road games at Arkansas and Texas by only 1 point. I don’t think OSU is at the disadvantage on the road that it has been for the last decade (coaching?).

Another good fact for OSU; when a 2 seed gets to play a quarterfinal game at home, they are 7-1. When they have to go on the road they are 7-4. So if USC was to lose to Western Kentucky Monday night — and of course OSU wins — they have a great chance to make it to MSG.

None of this guarantees anything. OSU could lose at home to Stanford on Monday night. But based on the last 10 years, the odds are in their favor. At this point, I’ll take anything that means more OSU basketball this season.

As I’ve said before, and I’ll say again, I really like this team and this season and I — like the seniors on the roster — am not ready for it to end.

Here are some extra facts about the last decade of the NIT.

• This is the first year since 2011 no 1 seeds lost in the first round.

• Of the 42 1 seeds in the last 10 years only 11 have made it to MSG.

• We talked about how wild last season was. It was also the only year an 8 seed making the final four in the last 10 years.

• Power 5 teams have won seven of the last 10 titles. The non-power teams were George Washington (2015), Wichita State (2011), and Dayton (2010).

• Power 5 teams are 7-7 in the title match. Mid-majors are 3-3. That includes 2015 when two Mid-majors made the title game.