Oklahoma State’s Roadmap to Achieving Bowl Eligibility

Mike Gundy’s calling card has been one of steady success. Oklahoma State has consistently been a Big 12 title contender, has consistently churned out 10-win seasons and has been to a bowl game every year following his first at the helm.

But 2018 has thrown a wrench into that well-oiled top 15 machine. We could blame a new scheme on defense, turnover at quarterback, simple attrition. How about good ol’ fashioned recruiting. In my mind it’s a mixture of all of the above and more. Even the head man himself deserves his fair share of the blame.

Regardless of who or what deserves the brunt of your ire, Oklahoma State is sitting at 5-5 with two chances to win that sixth game needed to guarantee postseason eligibility and all that comes with it. The door is closing on 2018 and OSU is one of three teams in jeopardy of breaking its long bowl streak.

So what are the odds that Oklahoma State actually misses a bowl game? Let’s take a look at the numbers.

First off, there are 39 total bowls games *record scratch*. What?! Yes, that’s correct. Thirty. Nine. That does not include No. 40, the National Championship game between Clemson and Alabama that takes place on January 7.

So, 78 out of 129 FBS teams will go bowling, and after Week 11, 65 teams have already hit the six-win mark. Oklahoma State needs a win against either West Virginia at home or at TCU to join that group.

What happens if OSU doesn’t reach six wins?

Well, aside from the guaranteed coaching rumor mill churning out whispers of Louisville’s strong interest in a certain mulleted CEO, the Cowboys still might have a chance to extend their season.

If there are not enough six-win teams to fill out the full bowl slate, the NCAA will drag the marsh for a five-win team or two to fill in those extra spots. If there aren’t enough six-win teams, those mediocre five-win schools would be ranked based on their rolling four-year APR, or academic progress rate. Oklahoma State’s 2016-17 APR ranking was 1,000, which is a perfect score. Unfortunately, its four-year average is 969 which is good for No. T-61.

There would even be some competition for OSU in its own conference. Kansas State, currently at 4-6, and Baylor (5-5) have APRs of 984 and 979, respectively. If either team ended up tied with OSU at 5-7, they would both get the nod over the Cowboys. At least a still ineligible 5-5 Ole Miss team has not lived out its bowl ban yet.

So while it’s possible that everything could break just right for a five-win OSU team to get in, I wouldn’t go booking my flight to Atlanta for the Celebration Bowl just yet.

Two to Get One

Since we’ve established that the Pokes are a long shot to backdoor their way into a bowl game with a sub-.500 record, let’s see what it’s going to take the earn it the old fashioned way.

According to his S&P+ ratings, Bill Connelly of SB Nation currently still gives the Cowboys an 81 percent chance to reach at least six wins. Let’s see how they get there.

This weekend, Oklahoma State’s Senior Night guest is No. 7 West Virginia. Vegas has tabbed the Pokes as 5.5-point home underdogs. But the Cowboys were three-score dogs in Norman last week, and we’ve seen how potent their offense can be and how its defense can make adjustments.

I could almost see the Cowboys riding a little bit of that momentum (or whatever you want to call it) that they found in Norman, albeit in a loss, and finding a way to upset the Mountaineers. I don’t know that I’m ready to pick them to win it, but it wouldn’t shock me.

Looking ahead to Week 13, the Cowboys are visiting a bad TCU squad. The Horned Frogs at 4-6 are in worse shape than the Cowboys. They have won just two games since Week 2. After playing Ohio State tough in a Week 3 loss, Gary Patterson’s crew has wins over Iowa State and Kansas State. They held the Cyclones and Wildcats to 14 and 13 points.

You’d like to say the Cowboys have enough firepower to hop off of I-35 and hang 30 on the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth — TCU hasn’t hit the 30-point mark since Week 2 — but the Cowboys have been so inconsistent this year, nothing is a given.

Missing out on a bowl game would be a disaster. This season has already been an disappointment, but finishing the year 1-7 after a 3-1 start would be catastrophic.

I’m going to go with my gut and say the Cowboys make it into whatever low-tier bowl a 6-6 finish gets them. The prestige won’t be there like in years past. And the swag won’t be as nice at the aptly-named Walk-On’s Independence Bowl at 12:30 pm on a Thursday (yes, that’s areal thing) as what they’ve grown accustomed to in recent years.

But the additional practices and reps will be important for young guys like Spencer Sanders and C.J. Moore. With any luck, a postseason win could provide that extra thrust that could propel them into 2019 and beyond.