10 Thoughts on the Oklahoma State Fan Survey

OKC Dave has completed yet another Oklahoma State fan survey, and this one had (by far) the best data yet as he collected nearly 2,500 responses. I read through it a bit yesterday to get a feel for everything, but today I went back and jotted down 10 thoughts (ok, maybe more) that I had about the survey heading into the 2017 season. Here they are.

1. A 44 percent increase in participation

The year over year increase in responses is staggering to me. A 44 percent increase?! I know we live in a more social, shareable era than when Dave started the survey a decade ago, but that still astounds me. Five years from now, Dave is going to be running the steps at Boone Pickens in the third quarter of the first game of the season collection scantrons from folks who are filling this thing out!

2. Wins and Ranking Never Match

It makes me laugh every year, but our ability to properly align final ranking in the polls with total number of wins is ridiculously bad. I know the data can be skewed a bit, but we said OSU would finish with 9.1 wins but be ranked No. 5 in the final poll. I also know that this is regular season wins only, but it is statistically impossible for OSU to be ranked anywhere near No. 5 having only won nine regular season games (or probably even 10).

Also, we have only once underestimated where OSU would finish in the season-ending polls (last year). But six times we have underestimated how many regular season wins they would end up with.

While we’re here — I’m also a little bemused by the 9.1 wins number. We thought the 2009 team would win more than that. And I love that we always undervalue how many games this team is going to win. I wonder how many perennial top 15 schools’ fan bases do that. Probably not many. It’s the 1990s OSU fan in us.

3. Iowa State has scarred us forever

Just look at this chart showing confidence in winning games from 2011 to 2017.

I know Iowa State is better (I guess), but they’re not that much better than they were in 2011. I’m just not sure we’re ever going to be able to look at an Iowa State-Oklahoma State matchup objectively again. Seneca Wallace’s great grandchildren will be lining up for Iowa State, and there will be a faction of us saying, “Remember when OSU should have played for the title in 2011?”

4. A must-win Bedlam

I’m not surprised that 91 percent of us said that if we could choose one game to win this year, it would be Bedlam. I am surprised that this number has never touched 90 percent before and has only twice been in the 80s. Also, that Art Briles hate was strrrrrrooooong.

5. Absence makes the heart grow fonder

I don’t know the formal name for the cognitive bias that attributes greater disdain to entities that are more often in the news, but it seems like that’s what’s going on with our prediction of which teams will win the Big 12.

What are the non-Oklahoma State schools OSU fans hear about most often? Texas, OU, Baylor and probably Texas Tech, right? Look at the four schools we said would finish worse than expected in the Big 12 this year.

6. A Much Better Offense

To the 25 percent of us who said we expect OSU to have a “much better” offense this year than last: Oklahoma State had the No. 17 overall offense in the country last year from a points per drive perspective and the No. 6 Power 5 offense. How much better can it get?

7. Good News for PFB

I saw this chart about halfway down the page.

And this was my reaction.

8. Will OSU play for the title?

Oklahoma State fans seem bent on the idea that OSU will play for a national title in the next decade. That’s not super surprising. Every school’s fans think they’re going to play for the title despite the existence of the Juggernaut Theory. Now I will say the introduction of the CFB Playoff has provided a better opportunity for this to happen if you’re a Washington or Oklahoma State or Pittsburgh fan.

What’s interesting about our confidence, though, is that it was at a four-year high in 2015 after one of the worst seasons of the Mike Gundy era. I understand the 89 percent in 2012 following that 2011 season, and I understand the 77 percent this year. But 78 percent certainty in 2015 after we watched Daxx play 5,000 all season with his receivers? I know the Rudolph-beating-OU-on-the-road thing was immense, but was it that immense?

9. Whose girlfriend did Kingsbury steal?

Coach Bro is not feeling the love from Oklahoma State fans. I guess maybe a lot of folks just ranked these in terms of their kids going to winning schools, but I’m not sure in what world I would rather my son play for Dana Holgorsen than Kliff Kingsbury.

10. Gundy’s Tenure

As Dave pointed out, 97 percent of OSU fans think Gundy will coach 5+ years. Bring me your money and some halfway decent odds, and we will stop having to ask for contributions. I’m not saying he’s not going to coach for five or more years. I’m saying that if you give me 33-1 odds (roughly the scenario above) that he coaches for four or fewer, I’d put $100 on it.

Let’s do a couple of bonus thoughts, too.

11. The Mike Holder Hate Is Real

This is approval rating for coaches/administrators.

What’s interesting to me is that Holder is held responsible for what happens in hoops (negatively) but not given credit for figuring out the Mike Gundy contract situation or for bringing in Underwood to begin with. Look at Holder’s line. It gets mildly bumped with Underwood’s entrance but then it is almost directly tied to Boynton. That seems, uh, unfair.

And the Holder narrative is such a social media-enabled one. Oh well my cousin talked to him at McAllister’s one time, and he wasn’t very nice. And then that gets passed around and around and around. All you can do is judge him based on the success of the athletic program, and there has never been a greater era in Oklahoma State athletics history. Yet his approval rating remains just above Nixon’s exit approval after Watergate!

12. Hoops Interest

This saddens me.

13. Wave the Wheat

On the topic of traditions, here is what OKC Dave wrote.

I was informed my many of you that we don’t wave the wheat at OSU (it’s true). Still, that’s how I’ve always referred to it and my informal Twitter poll shows that 61% of you agree with me (33% call it the “waving song”, 6% something else). Whatever you call it, the Arm Waving Thing OSU Fans Do After We Score is pretty popular at 83%.

First, this made me laugh harder than any other thing in the post. Second, call it literally whatever you want. There was a long thread on Orange Power roasting me a few years ago for not knowing that this was not called waving the wheat so of course that’s what I’ve called it ever since.

14. Weeden to ?

The “which combo would you pick when down at the end of a title game” question was such a great one. I went Weeden-Blackmon as did the majority. I think our familiarity with it trumps the allure of Weeden2Dez or Mason2Dykes etc. But man, there are some unbelievable combos in there. I think the first five should probably be Weeden to ———– just because of how money he was in the red zone. Weeden to Hart Lee should definitely be higher.

All in all, another gem from Dave, and his efforts are very much appreciated. He has been a long-time contributor to this site, and his work is always of the highest quality. You guys should give him a follow on Twitter.