Quarterback to Back: Three Things to Know about the Matchup Between OSU’s Alan Bowman and Kansas State’s Avery Johnson

Let’s play a guessing game.

You’re the quarterback of a team expected to compete for a Big 12 championship, if not win it. You just kicked off that highly anticipated conference schedule by playing a team from Utah and you absolutely dropped the ball (literally twice into your opponents’ hands). Now you’ve got to bear the brunt of a tough loss and the pressure of avoiding a devastating 0-2 Big 12 start this weekend.

Who are you?

If you guessed either Alan Bowman or Avery Johnson, both would be correct.

In this sense, Oklahoma State’s seventh-year passer has a lot in common with Kansas State’s sophomore QB. Both came into last week 3-0, and both captain a team picked to finish in the Top 3 of the league. But now both risk getting left behind in that conference race. The two will square off in a crucial game on Saturday morning.

Before we get into what makes Bowman and Johnson alike and what differentiates them, let’s take a look at their numbers through four games.

Coming Off His Worse Start

If you’re perusing this site, there’s a good chance you know what happened to Bowman last weekend. A week after turning in one of the best performances of his career, OSU’s seasoned vet stumbled out of the Big 12 gate, turning in one of his worst. (That swinging pendulum has become a trend for him this season. More on that below.)

Avery Johnson had been pretty consistent over the nonconference portion of the schedule, but consecutive interceptions made a bad situation for the Wildcats much worse.

Johnson and the Wildcats were up 6-3 over BYU late in the second quarter when K-State running back DJ Giddens had the ball stripped by a BYU defender, and it was run 30 yards the other way for a score. On the very next drive, Johnson threw his first interception which led to another BYU touchdown to put the Wildcats in a 17-6 hole. K-State didn’t force the issue on the final drive of the half, allowing the clock to run out, knowing Johnson and his offense would get the ball to start the second and a chance to regroup. Instead, he threw another interception on the second play of the third quarter with led to the Cougars scoring another TD two plays later. Three consecutive turnovers led to a 21-point swing and the Wildcats never recovered. They never ever found the end zone. It was the first time they hadn’t since 2020.

It was the first two-interception game of Johnson’s career. In eight appearances (just two starts) last year, he didn’t throw a single pick. The numbers aren’t eye-popping, but he’s been efficient. Over the first three games of 2024, Johnson’s completion percentage never dipped below 60%. He was at 53.6% against BYU.

How well Johnson rebounds in the passing game remains to be seen, but either way, his dual-threat skillset creates a mismatch for OSU’s defense.

He Does More Than the Box Score Shows

Stop me if you’ve read this before: K-State’s QB can beat you with his legs. Grab your heart pills, Cowboys fans.

The fact that Avery Johnson might just remind OSU fans of the last umpteen Wildcat QBs who could break loose and escape for a first down will be no less painful when they consider their own team’s running game woes, and what a mobile QB did to buoy it in the past.

Mike Gundy talked about it during his media availability Monday, emphasizing the benefits of having a running quarterback when defense stack the box. It’s something OSU last had with Spencer Sanders, and something that has been a constant at K-State seemingly since they’ve been playing football in northeast Kansas.

“I knew that we would have extra people in the box, and I know that it’s difficult to run the ball with extra people in the box,” said Gundy. “The majority of the teams in college football that can run the ball decent with extra people in the box are playing with a running quarterback.”

To Gundy’s point, the Wildcats just so happen to be one of those teams. Kansas State is currently a Top 15 rushing team, averaging more than 240 yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry. The Cats outrushed BYU 228-92 last weekend. The fact that it will have to account for an extra runner will put even more strain on an OSU defense that ranks dead last in the Big 12 in rushing defense.

Peaks and Valleys

Although Johnson has been mostly consistent over his young career, his counterpart on Saturday has had plenty of ups and downs, and this season has been an unfortunate microcosm of such.

For Bowman, it’s been peaks and valleys, following a strange, specific pattern so far this year.

The first thing that sticks out after a glance at his game logs is that Bowman has been incredibly efficient and a gamer against lesser competition. He completed over 70% of his passes against South Dakota State and Tulsa and less than 60% (then less than 50%) against Arkansas and Utah. His TD-to-interception ratio follows suit: 7:1 against the non-Power Four teams and 3:3 against the Hogs and Utes.

The numbers span too far a chasm to just be coincidence, but such a wide gap still doesn’t make sense if you frame it by level of competition. So, what is it?

Earlier this week, Bowman copped to the rough game, like a pro, but he didn’t really have an answer. Neither did Mike Gundy.

“I can’t imagine the game got too big for him,” said Gundy early this week. “I just don’t think he played well. I think he got uncomfortable. Then he started to move his feet around a little bit and then it kind of snowballed. I don’t really have a good answer.”

Yes, defenses have been loading up the box, and, sure, Utah could just be that good on defense. But the head-scratching trend remains. Bowman has been really efficient one week and then not so much the next. Rinse, repeat. Will we get the five-TD Bowman or the one that went 8-for-22 in the first half against Utah and got benched? Who knows. But the answer will go a long way in deciding if the Cowboys remain in the hunt for a trip to Arlington or far further back in the pack.