Five Reasons Oklahoma State’s Season is Not Lost Despite Texas Tech Loss

Oklahoma State’s season is not lost. Not even close.

The Cowboys fell flat in their conference-opener to Texas Tech last Saturday, but there is still plenty of reason for optimism that, Tech loss aside, this team – and this season – is still salvageable.

Let me tell you why.

1. Predictive metrics still love OSU

Statistics say that OSU is still a top-15 team, and predictive metrics – specifically the S&P+ rankings from SB Nation’s Bill Connelly – back that up.

S&P+, as I’ve described before as a KenPom of college football (and my own personal CFB bible), has OSU at No. 15 overall nationally. That’s down six spots from last week, but OSU still has a strong 17.5 S&P+ rating.  That’s good for second-best in the Big 12 behind OU.

Numbers are just numbers and predictive metrics are just predictive metrics, but if OSU can finish second in the Big 12, I’d say that’d make for a decent season in a rebuilding year.

2. Oklahoma State’s defense is still pretty good

Nationally, Oklahoma State is fifth in team tackles for loss with 9.5 through four games. And sacks? OSU ranks No. 1 (!) nationally at 4.75 per game.

So if you’re selling stock on the defense because Alan Bowman can hit a bubble screen in record time, please allow me to buy your stock. This defense is built, when healthy, to pressure quarterbacks, force mistakes, and create havoc. All the team metrics suggest this unit could be historically great.

Further, OSU’s total defense ranks 70th after Bowman had his way against OSU this past weekend – which somehow still ranks six spots ahead of OU, and a tick behind Texas, which sits at 61^st.

Most importantly (and more relevant, given OSU’s style of play), OSU is 30th nationally in yards per play allowed, allowing 4.7 per pop, according to TeamRankings.com. That’s third in the Big 12 behind only West Virginia and Baylor.

3. Mike Gundy is still head coach

Say what you will about Mike Gundy’s 7-7 conference-opening record, but Gundy’s overall track record speaks for itself. Get this: Two of the last three years they lost a Big 12 opener, they later went on to play for the Big 12 title.

I think it’s fair to say that Gundy, who has six 10-win seasons since 2010, has earned the benefit of the doubt.

4. Offense can bounce back

I’m not convinced Taylor Cornelius is OSU’s long-term answer at quarterback, but no matter if it’s him or Dru Brown or Alex Cate, OSU’s offense has still been good (not great).

Let me be clear before I throw numbers at you: OSU’s offense was a heap of garbage against Texas Tech, particularly in the second half.  But OSU’s offense still ranks 27th nationally at 2.88 points per drive, and 21st nationally in points per game scored.

It helps when you’ve got Justice Hill, J.D. King and Chuba Hubbard as a three-headed backfield monster, too. I suspect that, if the offensive line troubles get fixed (which seems like a gargantuan task), riding them could be OSU’s fix to getting the offense back on track no matter who is at QB.

5. Tylan might be a full-blown dude

I’ve tried to tip-toe around this topic because I’m nervous I might jinx the Tylan breakout, but guys, Tylan Wallace is an absolute man.

And he’s a sophomore!

He’s sixth nationally pulling in 110.5 yards receiving per game, and has 26 total receptions thus far this season. That’s better than OU receiver Marquise Brown, widely viewed as the best receiver in the league going into the season.

And best of all: He’s getting an insane amount of targets. Per NCAAsavant.com, he’s No. 4 nationally in total targets this season with 51 (!) through four games. That’s a cool 12.8 targets per game!

The next closest on the team in targets is Dillon Stoner, who has just 27 targets on the season. Jalen McCleskey has 24 (and will remain at 24), and Tyron Johnson has 22.