Five Things Oklahoma State Wrestling Needs to Defeat Penn State

Wrestling the national tournament in their home state, Penn State comes into the NCAA tournament as the prohibitive favorite to win another title this season.

Based on NCAA tournament seeds OSU is set up to finish second behind Penn State with a 41.5-point gap between the two.

If the seeds hold true, Penn State will beat Oklahoma State, 125.5-84, for the NCAA team title. pic.twitter.com/UHvAGGjani

— FloWrestling (@FloWrestling) March 18, 2019

OSU would need some big breaks to pull off the upset. Besides the bus getting lost or Tonya Harding striking a blow to someone’s knee, here are a few things that will need to happen to turn the tide in OSU’s favor.

1. The high seeds need to make the finals: Nick Piccininni, Daton Fix, Preston Weigel, and Derek White all are very real threats to make the finals of the NCAA tournament. That translates to a lot of NCAA tournament points. Weigel is the only one not seeded in a position where he is projected to do so. They all have to do it for OSU to be able to take down PSU. This would likely put OSU in a similar position to PSU as far as number of finalists go and would keep Penn State at bay a bit.

2. PSU’s mid range guys have to fall: Penn State is almost certain to win 157 and 197. They are the defending champ at 165 and the No. 1 seed at 174. Unfortunately they all have pretty good draws here, and it’s hard to see them finish very low on the podium at any of these weights.

OSU will need PSU to lose at 141, 184, and 285 where they’re a bit more vulnerable. They will also need them to score almost no points at 133 and 149. Though they’re good at both these weights, the draw for their 133 and 149 is pretty tough, so OSU really needs them to go home early. At 41, 84, and 285 you have to expect them to make the podium, but you really want to see it in as low a spot as possible.

3. OSU’s mid range guys need to win: Joe Smith, Kaid Brock, Kaden Gfeller, Jacobe Smith, and Dakota Geer all really need to produce and do the complete opposite of what the Cowboys need PSU to do with their similarly seeded guys. Joe Smith is seeded to score zero points. If he upsets the No. 1 seed early and goes on a run he will really flip the script in the team race.

Kaid Brock is in a similar position as a 15-seed who would not be projected to score many points. If both can finish in the top five range of their weight class they would score a combined 20+ points which would really close the scoring gap based on seeding.

4. OSU has to score a lot of bonus points: Penn State is going to score bonus points. It’s the mantra of their program. OSU has to score a lot as well. It’s hard to see OSU keeping pace with PSU in the bonus point department due to some of their draws, but they’ve got to find a wind to get majors, techs, and pins where they’re available.

5. Some luck: In any athletic endeavor a little luck can help. A fumble or missed field goal in football, an error in baseball. Those things all at times play big roles in whether or not teams win championships.

At the NCAA wrestling tournament this is often manifested by how a bracket breaks. If a heavily favored PSU wrestler gets caught on his back early and pinned. Or maybe a good wrestler in Kaden Gfeller’s path takes an early upset and his path to the final opens up, then naturally he’ll have a better shot at making a run. If good wrestlers in PSU’s path win, then they’ll have a tougher road. Brackets need to break in OSU’s favor and they need to hold up in PSU’s brackets.

At the end of the day, Penn State is still a heavy, heavy favorite and will be very hard to take down. The right mix of luck, some good wrestling by the Cowboys, and a few breaks could make the team race a bit more interesting though.