KenPom Shows an Oklahoma State Basketball Team Trending in the Wrong Direction

I would not describe myself as KenPom apostle — perhaps simply a disciple — but I do pay attention to where Oklahoma State ranks in his system, and we use his four factors in our previews. College basketball (maybe more so than college football) is largely unpredictable, but his team profiles do a good job of showing you what you’re getting at a base level.

If you’re unfamiliar with Kenny P., here’s the simplest explanation I could find of his system of daily ranking all 351 teams in D1 hoops.

I would describe the philosophy of the system as this: it looks at who a team has beaten and how they have beaten them. Same thing on the losses, also. Yes, it values a 20 point win more than a 5 point win. It likes a team that loses a lot of close games against strong opposition more than one that wins a lot of close games against weak opposition. [KenPom]

When the season started, OSU was ranked as the 50th best team — this was based on data from last year as well as who’s leaving, who’s entering and coaching changes. I was encouraged by the No. 50 ranking but discouraged because that placed OSU last among all Big 12 teams.

Even though Iowa State has since “surpassed” the Pokes (and currently ranks 97th), it still hasn’t been a pretty trend for Mike Boynton and Co. Here’s a look at their KenPom ranking after several key basketball games this season.

Not good! It also reflects the fact that OSU is currently on its first three-game losing streak of the year.

A lot of this, I fear, is due to OSU’s inability to defend as well as it was earlier in the year. The Cowboys currently rank ninth in Big 12-only defensive efficiency (points given up per 100 possessions).

That’s a bad sign for a team that prides itself on that end of the floor.

“We didn’t come out with great effort,” said senior Kendall Smith after the loss to TCU on Tuesday in which OSU gave up 1.08 points per possession (or 108 points per 100 possessions.

“It was one of the things coach hinted on after the game. And we knew it. Cam (McGriff) kind of brought us together before the game. He was just saying that our energy wasn’t there and it showed. You can’t come out and not have the right amount of energy in this conference and expect to win.

“In this conference, there is a very small margin of error. If you don’t come out with the right mindset, then you’ll be in a situation like this. You have to go back to the drawing board. We’ll be fine. We have a great group of guys. And if our mind is right, coach always says we can beat anyone. I’m confident in everyone, and I’m pretty sure everyone is confident in what we can do.”

The players and coaches certainly might be, but the numbers tell a different story. OSU is going the wrong way at the wrong time of the year. They’ll have a few opportunities to right the ship in a big way (starting with KU on Saturday) before it’s gone for good and 2018 slips into 2019 and beyond.