Mike Gundy Seems Convinced The OSU Run Game Is Close, But Is It?

Rennie Childs ran for 101 yards and four TDs on 10 carries on Saturday against Pitt. That’s terrific. Really good. The first time an OSU RB has run for 100+ against a Power 5 opponent since, gulp, the 2015 Cactus Bowl. That was two seasons ago.

But is the run game even going in the right direction? Mike Gundy thinks so.

“Well, as I mentioned earlier, it’s not good enough, but we’re just one guy away,” said Gundy. “One play, it’s the right guard. The next play everybody is blocked, it’s the left guard. Another play, everybody is blocked, and it’s the right tackle.

“We’re just one guy away on a lot of plays from being better in the running game. Over the last two years, we were three guys at a time away up front. We’re making improvements. Rennie (Childs) played the best game he’s ever played. He showed speed, he showed some allusiveness. Chris Carson is hurt, so we don’t have him for a while. I liked the way Justice ran. He was close to breaking a couple. He did a nice job for a true freshman.”

I’m not besmirching what Childs did. He was great, and good for him because he’s been with the program through some down times. It was the best college football game he has ever played. That’s awesome.

And you guys know my feelings on Hill. I think he’s great. I think he’s going to be great and is already great. I think he’s the next Joe Randle. He also had some really good runs on Saturday.

But none of this means the run game woes are no more.

In fact, let’s look at those here. I went back and looked up the total yards-per-carry totals for OSU in its three non-conference games dating back to 2010 (I only included the first three non-con games of 2010 to try and accurately match it up with the other years). OK, here we go.

#okstate yards per carry in non-conference play …

2010: 5.3
2011: 4.7
2012: 7.0
2013: 4.8
2014: 4.2
2015: 4.9
2016: 3.1

?

— Pistols Firing (@pistolsguys) September 19, 2016

Oh my goodness.

OSU has been a full yard per carry worse in non-conference play this season than in any season since Dana Holgorsen took over the offense in 2010. You can’t blame the schedule either. Yeah, Pitt is pretty good, but OSU played Florida State in 2014. It played Mississippi State in 2013. It played Arizona in 2012. These teams were all as good or better than Pitt.

OSU also currently ranks No. 113 in the nation in sacks allowed (OU is No. 117 by the way). And this is part of the problem. If you take out Rudolph’s “runs” OSU jumps up to 4.5 yards per carry.

But I didn’t take out the QB “runs” in any of the other seasons either. Sacks were fair game there as they always are (although the QBs in those seasons weren’t sacked as much). And it’s not like the sacks don’t count in the game! The refs don’t say, “well the QB had it and he wasn’t trying to run so it doesn’t count.” It’s just that you would categorize the issues under “offensive line” instead of “run game.”

So all of this is a problem. One we haven’t really discussed that much because, you know, the run game seems better for the most part. Gundy says they’re one guy away on most plays, and maybe that’s true. But in terms of pure numbers, things are somehow getting worse and not better.

UPDATE (2:33 p.m.): I went back and took out sack numbers for the last three years. Still not great. And my point still remains. The running game hasn’t gotten better statistically.

2014: 4.8 YPC
2015: 5.4 YPC
2016: 4.2 YPC