Oklahoma State Has Been Spectacular for a Decade With a Rest Advantage

This might be the wonkiest stat, but after three years of wonk from Mike Gundy and Co., we get to do what we want with the numbers. Baylor toppled Texas Tech in a pair of OTs last weekend and comes in ranked inside the top 20 (although not favored) against Oklahoma State for Homecoming this weekend (shout out to all the pompers this week, drink more Hoboken Coffee).

From @BudElliott3:

-Baylor +4 at Ok State
-UNC at VT +3.5
-GT at Miami -19.5
-Air Force -1 at Hawaii
-Tenn/Bama under 61.5

and more: https://t.co/H9DAe2hega

— Banner Society (@BannerSociety) October 13, 2019

Oklahoma State is of course coming off a bye week in which they got some much-needed rest following six straight games, which also followed a month of fall camp grinding.

“I wish we would’ve had an open week earlier,” said Mike Gundy. “I would have liked to have one after week three or four because you have to take August into consideration.

“Even if you got an open week after week three, that is still seven weeks of football, which is a lot for these guys. It came at a good time for all of us. Hopefully it gives the players a chance to enjoy themselves; go see their friends, families and get back to work on Sunday.”

The Baylor-Tech game was on Saturday, which means OSU will have a rest advantage this Saturday. That is, they will have been off for more days (13) than Baylor was off for (six). In those situations, OSU has been spectacular over the last decade. They’re 1-0 this season (they had seven days off following the Oregon State game, while McNeese had six) and 21-2 (!!) since 2010 when they have more rest than their opponent.

Even when you factor in the weird last three seasons in which nothing has been statistically related to anything else in the Gundy era, they’re still 5-0. Overall in the Gundy era (since 2005) with a rest advantage over the team they’re playing, they’re 31-7.

Baylor under Matt Rhule is 0-2 with a rest disadvantage like they have this week.

And again, this is a deep-dive stat that may or may not be relevant. But the point is that when Gundy teams are locked back in following a break while other schools have been laboring through the conference gauntlet, Gundy teams usually roll. Since 2010, they win 91 percent of the time with an average margin of victory approaching 30.

Hopefully that’s a harbinger for the Homecoming week to come in Stillwater.