OSU-Houston: Three Major Factors That Could Determine Saturday’s Game

On paper, No. 18 Oklahoma State and No. 20 Houston are pretty evenly matched. But the Cougars might be the team to expose a couple of the Cowboys’ flaws.

Both teams come in with just one loss. Though Houston gets the decided edge on best loss with a 28-26 road loss at No. Texas Tech. Yet the Cowboys are getting a bit more flowers of late since they are the ones on a four-game winning streak, with a rising star QB and offensive playmakers all over the field.

Both teams can score, currently sitting at second and third in the Big 12 with Houston holding the slight edge of 40 points per game to OSU’s 38.2. The Pokes do it more on through the air, boasting the league’s top passing offense. The Cougars are more run-heavy, averaging nearly 42 rush attempts per game to just 29 pass attempts. They rank fourth in the league rushing yards per game.

Both teams land toward the middle of the league when it comes to scoring defense. Houston is also one spot ahead of OSU allowing 19.2 and 20.4 points per game, respectively, but they also go about that in opposite ways. The Cowboys are fifth in the league in passing defense while the Cougars are 13th. Conversely, UH ranks first in the Big 12 in rushing defense while OSU is 13th.

But of the three issues that we’ve seen develop over OSU’s first five games, Houston has been really good against two of them and really bad against the third. Let’s see what the Cowboys will need to account for.

Turnovers

The Cougars are among the best teams at avoiding turnovers, while the Cowboys rank among the worst at committing them. Houston is T-3rd having lost just four turnovers: three fumbles and only one interception. OSU is 15th of 16 teams with nine total: four fumbles and five picks. Meanwhile, the Coogs are T-4th in the league having forced eight (three fumbles gained, five picks), while the Cowboys are T-1oth having taken it away six times (two fumbles, four picks).

The caveat here is that the Cowboys have been getting decidedly better as the season has progressed. I’ve typed some form of this at least three times on this site, but Drew Mestemaker’s heavy pick count is front-loaded with two each coming against Tulsa and then Oregon (those two were batted). He’s only thrown one in the last three games. And two of the Cowboys’ four lost fumbles also occurred against Tulsa. Then there was the Mestemaker drop against Murray State.

You can’t take away, say the Tulsa game, but if you could, this is not a talking point. But this might be a good test of whether the TO bug is a thing that might rear its ugly head from time to time, or if the Pokes are just over an early bad spell.

Red Zone Woes

OSU has struggled at getting those last couple yards near the goal line starting from Week 1, but Houston might be more accommodating.

The Cowboys were better in the red zone against UCF, but they still rank 15th of 16 Big 12 teams win TD% inside the 20. This has also been trending in the right direction. The Cowboys have been 5-of-5 in red zone scoring the last two weeks, after going scoreless in the red zone four times in their first three games. Again, the Pokes scored four touchdowns on five tries last week, their best bang for RZ buck all year.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, Houston has had a hard time stopping folks when backed up in its own territory. Houston is last in the Big 12, allowing scoring on 92.9% of opponent red zone trips and 15th when it comes to TDs. Teams are scoring 78.6% of the time so far this season. They’ve only forced teams into two made field goals in 14 red zone trips.

A Third-Down Discrepancy

The Cowboys have struggled to maintain drives, unless they can get huge chunk-yardage plays. Fortunately, there have been plenty of those. But it has been harder than it feels necessary to keep the offense on the field and maintain drives.

On the other hand, Houston is the best third-down offense in the country. The Cougars are converting 62.7% of third-down attempts and 71.4% of fourth down attempts (5-of-7), which is Top 20 nationally. Marshall did a great job of breaking it down earlier this week, but this could be one of the biggest factors in the outcome Saturday night.

Part of it comes down to a clash of styles. OSU has playmakers and is going to depend on big plays, while the Cougars are going to try to chip away at the game and the field. If the Cowboys can find a way to move the chains, at least a little more effectively, they should be able to lean on that big-play offense to offset some of that.