Roundtable: Thoughts on Houston, the Big 12 Title Race and Drew Mestemaker’s Draft Stock

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The Cowboys are back to playing nationally relevant football, and that fact will be on full display this weekend.

Oklahoma State hits the road to play Houston at 6:30 p.m. Saturday at TDECU Stadium. It’s a Top 20 matchup with Big 12 title implications very much in play.

The PFB crew got together Thursday morning to discuss the game, the Big 12 and all the Drew Mestemaker draft buzz.

Marshall Scott: Big game in Houston this weekend, we’ll get to predictions tomorrow, but how are you guys feeling entering this one?

Kyle Cox: I feel pretty confident about OSU’s chances, but this is THE Big 12 road test. I think this could be a hinge point for the season. Does OSU revert to some of its early-season mistakes or continue on the upward trajectory? I think it will say a lot about how good this team is.

Tyler Waldrep: Almost everything I know about poker tournaments comes from an episode of Psych (so it’s probably wrong), but it kind of feels like these teams have gone all in and the winner will advance to sit with the real contenders (BYU, Utah and Texas Tech).

Oklahoma State won’t be out if they lose this, but the Cowboys will probably have to win out from here if they can’t come home with the win.

Marshall: This feels odd saying because OSU played Dante Moore, but I think Conner Weigman could give the Cowboys more fits than any other quarterback on the schedule this year.

OSU had some trouble containing Michael Hawkins, and while Weigman isn’t the runner that Hawkins is, Weigman is a much, much better passer. Then OSU’s defense has probably most struggled when teams have stayed on scheduled and deliberately moved down the field, which Houston’s nation-leading third-down conversion percentage would point to the fact that the Cougars are good of staying ahead of the chains. But teams have had trouble keeping up with OSU’s offense. Think it’s a fun matchup.

Kyle: Agreed. I think OSU needs to better on third down, but the big play potential is what makes OSU dangerous. Definitely a clash in styles that reminds me of those OSU, K-State matchups from the mid-to-late teens. Cardiac Cowboys, anyone?

Tyler: My preseason idea of Weigman is probably still stuck in my head, but I just can’t imagine him actually being OSU’s toughest QB matchup even if the data points that way.

I think OSU’s defense feels well-equipped to stop Houston, especially since Weigman is more of a run through the heart of the defense guy, unless the Cowboys can’t defend the TE well. Houston funnels its passing game through that position, and UCF was the first team to target TEs more than once (and they had great success at that last weekend).

Marshall: What’s standing in OSU’s way from Arlington if they win here? Obviously you have to take care of business in games you’re expected to win, but wouldn’t they probably need to lose twice to not make it to Arlington? The stakes feel massive.

Tyler: Honestly, surviving road let downs and/or injuries would be biggest thing from here. We’ve seen this team start slow so it wouldn’t shock me to see a flat game at Iowa State, Kansas State or Arizona State and all of those teams feel good enough to “spring a trap” on a highly ranked OSU team.

I also think it’s possible BYU-Utah and Texas Tech all finish with one loss or better. Could be a heartbreaker deciding who gets left out.

Kyle: I hear you on that. I might just be jaded, but I look at the schedule and see three more road games. They’re definitely in the driver’s seat with a win Saturday, but I guess I’ve got too much past trauma to get to that point yet. But yes, stakes are massive. A loss makes it much muddier.

Marshall: So neither OSU nor Texas Tech play a Utah school in the regular season. Is the Big 12’s path to being a multi-bid league being one of OSU-Tech and one of Utah-BYU being undefeated (in conference) and playing in the title game?

Or is it even possible given some of the disrespect the league gets?

Kyle: That’s interesting. I feel like the brand name matters for a Big 12 squad but maybe the narrative matters. I think your scenario is probably the easiest to see play out. There’s still so much football left to play elsewhere. And we are still in the point of the season where Top 10 teams (AP) are bouncing off their expectations and dropping down the ranking.

That’s noncommittal, but I think it’s not out of the question. I do think the Big 12 could use some help from some of those propped up SEC/Big Ten squads just ready to trip up again.

Tyler: Several beat writers debated this on Tuesday. I was one of only two who thought the Big 12 WOULD be a multi-bid league.

Mainly because of national respect the conference has right now. At this time last year, Texas Tech was 9 and 5-0 BYU was 18 with Arizona State and Iowa State 21 and 22. Right now, three teams are ranked between 8-11, the Cowboys are 18 and Houston is 20. Not only will more eyes be on the conference overall, the longer these teams are ranked the harder it will be for them to drop even if they lose to each other.

I know the CFP rankings will reset everything a bit, but those folks are human and it’s really hard to shake things once your brain has told you these teams are good.

As for who gets those two spots, I think the BYU-Utah winner and the OSU-Tech winner are the favorites, but if one of those games is an all-timer then I could see the loser hanging around and stealing a spot from the conference runner up. Would probably be tougher for OSU to do that with the Tulsa loss hanging like an anchor on its resume.

Marshall: BYU beating Notre Dame this weekend would go a long way because it, one, proves the conference is good, and two, potentially knocks Notre Dame out of contention, freeing up a spot. The Irish have a rather soft schedule this year, so Notre Dame really needs this one for the resume.

Tyler: I think Notre Dame has a free pass as long as they land in top 12 … or something like that. Notre Dame would need to lose at least twice, maybe three times to finish lower (I think). I hate that soft auto-bid by the way.

But yeah that would probably lock in BYU or Utah as a top 7 or higher team for whole season.

Marshall: One last thing we should hit on: Drew Mestemaker’s draft stock is soaring. What are you guys’ thoughts on that?

As people were debating in the offseason whether Mestemaker would be in the 2027 or the 2028 draft, I maintained that OSU fans should want him to be a 2027 draft guy because that’d mean the Cowboys were having a great season. Obviously it started out a little funky, but it’s been an otherwise great first half. Would it stink to see him in orange for only a year? Sure, but I’m not sure OSU has ever had a quarterback talked about with such reverence. So, I think it’s only a good thing for the program. He’s looked like a pro, that’s for sure.

Kyle: I think it’s nice to see and just a product of his elite-level play. Before OSU fans get too upset that he might jump to the NFL, just remember there is a lot of football to be played and the talking heads are as fickle as they are headline-grabby. Also, with the opportunity to make some decent coin in Stillwater next year — and what the added experience could do for his game — I don’t think it’s a guarantee he leaves.

Now I’m not saying he stays, especially if he’s at the top of the board for a bunch of teams. I’m just saying he isn’t guaranteed to go.

Third point, Eric Morris is not bad at finding/developing QB talent. #BrodieSZN.

Tyler: I’ve been telling people since the spring that this guy is an NFL QB. I took a lot of crap in my mentions after the TU game, but I held my stock and I’m now leaning that he leaves this offseason as a first-round selection.

I’m not going to pretend to know him well, but it does seem like Drew might be the type of guy to come back if this team comes really close to either a Big 12 title or the playoff itself. There’s also evidence that late bloomers like him need as much playing time as possible before getting to the league so I could see that, his relationship with Morris and the money on the table in Stillwater keeping him around.

But if he could go No. 1 overall then would that be too much to pass up. Drew was very candid with us at Big 12 Media Days that he’s always (even as a high school backup) maintained his dream of playing in the NFL.