PFB Predictions for Oklahoma State Football in 2026

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We are now less than a week from the start of the Eric Morris era at Oklahoma State and fans are desperate to see this new-look program.

The Cowboys have lost 20-straight games against an FBS opponent, but that streak could end on Saturday. A completely new coaching staff and an almost completely new roster has fans excited for the rebuild and anxious to see how long it will take.

We at PFB have been your go-to source for OSU football content for 15 years, but this will be our second head football coach to cover. So we got together, peered into our crystal ball and have some predictions for the 2026 football season.

Offensive MVP

Marshall Scott: I’m going to keep it on the fairway and go with Drew Mestemaker. I would certainly listen to an argument for Caleb Hawkins, but I’m super bullish on OSU’s receivers and Hawkins as a receiver. So, with all of those weapons at his disposal, give me the Cowboys’ QB.

Tyler Waldrep: QB Drew Mestemaker. When you spend 10-plus years getting paid to watch high school and college football players live in person, you develop a bit of an eye for talent. I’m not saying I could replace an NFL scout or an FBS recruiter, but I can usually tell the difference between guys who have the physical tools needed for that next level.

I really love going against the grain, but from the first minute I saw Drew Mestemaker throw the ball in spring practice, I could tell he had the physical tools worthy of the NFL.

When your QB is this good, it’s impossible to consider anyone else for MVP, so enjoy the ride. It might be short if he lives up to his full potential.

Kyle Cox: I have to go with Drew Mestemaker. Shocker, I know. The QB is the default MVP most of the time and OSU has the 2025 passing leader. He’ll need all his playmakers and supporting cast but, if you listen to the Cowboys’ coaching staff, it sounds like Mestemaker might even take a step forward as a sophomore.

Defensive MVP

Marshall Scott: I’ll buck the trend a bit here and go with returning defensive end Jaleel Johnson.

Listed at 6-foot-4, 270 pounds, Johnson was a big breakout candidate last season, but he played in just four games before missing the rest of the year. Then earlier this summer, Morris referred to Johnson as the most disruptive defender of the spring.

It’d make for a heck of a story if Johnson could take that step into stardom in 2026, given he stuck out some of the worst seasons of OSU football in some time.

Tyler Waldrep: Linebacker Ethan Wesloski gets the nod over nickel Christian Bodnar because it sounds like Wesloski will quarterback the defense from a communication standpoint. According to Pro Football Focus, Wesloski graded out fourth nationally among linebackers with 200-plus snaps last season when he played 804.

He’s a proven run-defender, 86.2 grade against the run, and did not give up a touchdown last season in coverage, according to PFF, while finishing with a pick and two pass breakups. Without seeing him in a game, it’s hard to say if he will translate to the next level the way some other Cowboy defenders will, but it’s hard to imagine any one guy will have a greater impact.

Kyle Cox: I’ll go with Ethan Wesloski. It’s a safe bet that UNT’s leading tackler last season will be able to translate that skillset to the Big 12. Wesloski is coming off 113 takedowns as a junior and he quickly established himself as the leader of this defense.

Passing Yards and TDs for Drew Mestemaker

Marshall Scott: 4,100 and 28. That’s a slight drop-off from the numbers Mestemaker put up last season, but would still mark the fifth-most yards and sixth-most touchdowns in a season in program history.

I jumped between predicting over and under Mestemaker’s 2025 totals. The argument for under would be the jump up in competition, and he probably isn’t going to have a 608-yard game this season like he did against Charlotte last year. The argument for the over would be he’s a year wiser in Eric Morris’ system, and I think he’s got a definitive upgrade at receiver with the additions of Chris Barnes and Justin Bowick joining Wyatt Young and Miles Coleman.

Tyler Waldrep: 3,770 and 30. Mestemaker averaged 337 passing yards per game last season and threw 34 total touchdowns. I’m not confident Oklahoma State’s team, especially the defense, is good enough for the offense to just play ball control late, so I think Mestemaker will need to throw it throughout most fourth quarters this season.

With that in mind, I think he will average 290 a game despite facing tougher competition and throw for a still-impressive 30 touchdowns thanks to big games against Tulsa and Murray State.

Kyle Cox: 4,100 and 30. I’m predicting a slight drop-off in production from last year with the step-up in competition. For reference, the second-leading passer in the nation behind Mestemaker last year was also in the Big 12. Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson turned in 3,681 and 31.

Rushing Yards and TDs for Caleb Hawkins

Marshall Scott: 1,200 and 22. On one hand, Hawkins didn’t really get to play all that much until UNT’s fourth game of the year last season. On the other hand, he’ll be regularly facing tougher defenses, and Morris has noted he wants to lighten Hawkins’ load as much as possible. So, I’m going to go for a dip in both, but I still think he’s going to be a touchdown machine when the Cowboys get in close.

Tyler Waldrep: 1,215 and 19. Morris wants to ease the workload on Caleb Hawkins this season. Plenty of coaches say that, but then struggle to follow through when games are tight. Plus, Hawkins didn’t play more than 16 offensive snaps in his first two games, and he missed another early.

​Instead of predicting a decrease in workload, I’ll just assume a realistic drop-off in yards per carry, from 6.2 to 5.3, due to higher-quality defenses.

Kyle Cox: 1,200 and 20. Again, a slight dip for me just cause I want to see how OSU competes against Big 12 defenses. This would still obviously be a huge year for Hawkins.

Receiving Yards and TDs for Wyatt Young

Marshall Scott: 900 and 8. I learned on The Reload last week that I had a hot take in not thinking Young was going to be the Cowboys’ leader in receiving yards. I bestowed that honor on Chris Barnes. So, that’s why my Young numbers might look a little small, but 900 yards and eight touchdowns is nothing to sneeze at, either. For reference, Gavin Freeman led OSU by 100 receiving yards last season and finished with 481 and four touchdowns.

Tyler Waldrep: 1,002 and 7. The numbers still pop, but I share what feels like a common belief on the OSU beat that Wyatt Young won’t be the No. 1 receiver this season. He was last year when he finished with 1,264 yards and 10 touchdowns on 70 receptions.

Not sure if Morris is the type of coach to force the issue, but I think Young will be close to 1,000 yards late. So, I’m just assuming coaches design a big showing late to get him over the hump.

Kyle Cox: 1,200 and 10. I think Meste slings it around, but this dip comes from the fact that OSU has several freaks that are going to require targets.

Tackle Leader

Marshall Scott: Ethan Wesloski. Sort of feels like a layup. Health permitting, I think Wesloski gets more than 100 tackles for the second season in a row.

Tyler Waldrep: Wesloski had 113 last season. I can’t imagine anyone else will keep up with him this fall as he once again tops the 100-tackle mark.

Kyle Cox: Ethan Wesloski. I teased this a big with my DPOY pick. I think he’s the first triple-digit tackler since Nick Martin, Kendal Daniels and Trey Rucker all did it in 2023.

Sacks Leader

Marshall Scott: If I picked Jaleel Johnson to be my defensive MVP, I better also pick him as the Cowboys’ sack leader. It sounds as if they’re going to be rotating quite a bit up front, so perhaps it won’t take a ton of sacks to claim this honor, but I think Johnson could get in the 7-9 range.

Tyler Waldrep: DE Jaleel Johnson. ​Fellow defensive end James Williams is the more proven pass rusher, but Jaleel Johnson was the guy Morris tabbed as the most disruptive player in spring.

Kyle Cox: Malik Charles. This might be a bit of a hot take. Charles might not even be a starter, but defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity expects a deep rotation up front. Charles should get plenty of opportunities, and he’s shown glimpses of his ability to make plays in the backfield.

Freshman of the Year

Marshall Scott: The two freshmen Morris has mentioned most are wide receiver Dayvon Standard and defensive tackle Savion Barthelemy.

So, do I think a freshman has a true shot of cracking into what is a stacked receiver room? Or do I think a defensive tackle can play regularly in a physically demanding position and make a big enough impact at an unheralded position?

I’ll go with Standard. This this could be similar to Tylan Wallace’s 2017 freshman season. Tylan was in that stacked room that included James Washingon, Marcell Ateman, Jalen McCleskey, Dillon Stoner, Tyron Johnson and Chris Lacy but was still able to carve out seven catches for 118 yards.

Tyler Waldrep: WR Dayvon Standard. It’s a bit surprising considering the talent in the receiver room, but when the head coach said he is pushing for a spot in the rotation, I listen. My bonus pick here is Carl Albert alum Carl’veon Young, who made the move to defensive end this offseason. I’m not sure he will get much playing time, but if he gets some time in the back half of the season, I could see him breaking out.

Kyle Cox: Safety Braeden Presley. With the deep group the Cowboys expect to rotate through their secondary, it would be hard for a true freshman to crack the rotation at Safety, especially early. But if any frosh sneaks in their to make some plays, I’m going with the legacy — and probably in the return game.

(Non-UNT) Newcomer of the Year

Marshall Scott: As previously noted, I think Chris Barnes is going to lead the team in receiving, so I’ll give him the nod here. He’s blazing fast, and I’m excited to see the different ways Morris and Mestemaker get the rock in his hands.

Tyler Waldrep: Wake Forest transfer receiver Chris Barnes was the guy who really stood out in the spring game with his four-catch, 141-yard performance, which included one touchdown.

Barnes appeared to be a favorite target for Mestemaker during spring practices. I’m betting that connection remains strong and shows up despite healthy competition for targets from guys like Young and receiver Justin Bowick.

I think Barnes could be a sneaky leader for receiving touchdowns this season and might be the favorite for total targets. He should be at least top two in receiving yards and yards per catch as well.

Kyle Cox: CB Mo Horn. Eric Morris singled out the Tulsa native and Texas Tech transfer early in fall camp. He’s a savvy veteran that could be way more important to OSU’s secondary than even his final stat line shows.

Bold Prediction

Marshall Scott: Drew Mestemaker plays himself into being a first round pick. At least here in the preseason, college football has a deep crop of quarterbacks. Just about everyone thinks that Mestemaker is an NFL-caliber passer but people differ on when he’ll go to the league.

Perhaps this is because I’m transcribing Tre Lamb quotes comparing Mestemaker to Philip Rivers and Brett Farve, but I’m high on Mestemaker reaching that potential sooner rather than later.

Mestemaker going in the first round of next year’s draft would mean OSU would have to find a new man to run the show in 2027, but that would be a good problem to have.

Tyler Waldrep: When No. 12 Texas Tech visits on Nov. 14, Oklahoma State will either upset the Red Raiders or lose by one possession. I also think the Cowboys beat the current spread against No. 2 Oregon, which favors the Ducks by 17.5 points.

Last season, Oklahoma State lost to those two teams by a combined score of 111-3.

Kyle Cox: The Cowboys land in the Top 25 by Halloween. This would almost certainly mean the Pokes start 4-1 or even 5-1 with a strong showing against Oregon. Unfortunately, I think it’s short-lived as the Pokes face a tough back half of their slate. But what a turnaround that would be.

Oklahoma State’s Record (w/ Big 12 finish)

Marshall Scott: 9-4 (4th in Big 12). I picked OSU to win 10 regular season games in 2024 before the Cowboys went 3-9. So, I’m trying to not do that again, but it’s getting harder and harder not to in the excitement of the preseason.

I think the Pokes go 8-4 in the regular season and then win a bowl game, which would be an outstanding year given what we’ve all been forced to watch the past two seasons.

I think the Houston game (Oct. 17) is massive in terms of what’s possible for this group this year. If they go down to H-Town and beat the Cougars, I’ll be ready to start getting irrational again.

Tyler Waldrep: 9-4 (5th in Big 12). Since I believe in Mestemaker’s NFL future and Morris’ as an offensive playcaller, it’s hard to imagine anything other than a resounding success.

​Indiana proved that coaches don’t need a ramp-up year anymore. The Hoosiers went 11-2 in Curt Cignetti’s first season. Like Cignetti, Morris brought coaches and players with him, only he kept even more of the band together.

For now, I’ll predict that OSU drops games to playoff favorites Oregon and Texas Tech.

I think pretty highly of Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham and that game comes on the road right after what could be a disappointing near-upset of the Red Raiders. So put me down for a Cowboys loss to the Sun Devils.

Although I think OSU will start fast, I do expect the team to drop a game on the road early, either to West Virginia (week 4) or Houston (week 7). I’m predicting a win in Manhattan, but it is easily the one that worries me the most, considering the talent on that roster combined with the fact that OSU could get caught looking ahead to a ranked-vs-ranked matchup against the Red Raiders the following week.

Kyle Cox: 8-5 (7th in Big 12). Again, what a turnaround. I feel like 7-6 is a little safer, but I think the Cowboys have a chance to steal one from that the group of Arizona State, Houston or Tech. If the Pokes pull this off, Eric Morris will be at the top of the list for Big 12 Coach of the Year.