Three and Out: Why OSU Holds the Edge If the Weather Gets Ugly in Morgantown

Oklahoma State finishes up back-to-back road games with a stress-inducing trip to Morgantown. The Cowboys have a slim margin for error if they want to keep their Big 12 title hopes alive. That’s closer to none if we’re talking about College Football Playoff prospects.

So let’s take a look at three key numbers to watch during Saturday’s ranked-on-ranked matchup in M-Town.

60%

That’s the chance of rain at kickoff from my most recent check of the forecast.

The oncoming inclement weather has been a source of anxiety for OSU fans these last couple of days. What will OSU look like? Will Mike Gundy take over the headset and hand it to Justice Hill 60 times? Will he lock Mason Rudolph in the team bus? Maybe we’ll see the K.W. Walsh package.

It’s important to remember, though, that weather could affect both teams in a similar way. West Virginia is actually a bit more pass-heavy than Oklahoma State, running it 47.5 percent of the time to OSU’s 51.7 percent rush-to-pass. Besides, it’s not like the game’s being played in Norman.

1-2

In case this does turn into an ugly weather game, both teams boast a formidable 1-2 running back punch.

Justice Hill is the Big 12’s leader in rushing yards and attempts and the Mountaineers boast a formidable 1-2 punch with Justin Crawford and Kennedy McCoy. In fact the two teams’ duos are pretty comparable.

Clearing the way will be a couple of offensive lines that have seen better days, or in some cases, better years. West Virginia had to replace seven offensive linemen after 2016 including All-American Tyler Orlosky and starting left guard Adam Pankey. Oklahoma State seemed to be finally stepping in the right direction in line play but have been decimated with injuries so far. If any of those guys can return for this Saturday it would be huge.

2.37

The Mountaineers are in the midst of a rebuild year on defense. Tony Gibson’s groups have been pretty stout through the years but he had to replace all of his starters up front this fall and several other impact players across the field. Consequently, West Virginia is allowing 2.37 points per drive heading into this weekend. That’s only good for an No. 80 ranking nationally. OSU comes in currently at 27th with a PPD allowed of 1.61.

If this game does get sloppy due to weather, Oklahoma State holds the clear edge on defense. I wrote about this earlier this week but I think OSU has a top-3 defense in the Big 12. Meanwhile, West Virginia ranks among the lower third of the league in most statistical categories.

So, it may not look like the barn burner we imagined a couple of weeks ago but at least the Cowboys seem to have a decent-to-good defense to lean on.