The Three Most Important Stats For Oklahoma State In 2016

Statistics can tell a lot about a team. If any particular team is successful in one or more of the more important statistical categories, their chances of having a successful season are much higher; the same goes for poor statistics and poor season outcomes.

OSU excelled in many statistical areas last year, like turnover margin and passing offense, but struggled in many other important ones, like rushing offense and scoring defense — the former two led them to ten wins, the latter two prevented them from going further.

We know that success in some categories will be a given for the Pokes. The passing game, for example, is set to thrive once again. But if the Cowboys want to find a way into national prominence, they will have to excel in others as well. Here are what we think are the three most important statistical categories for the Cowboys in 2016.

Third Down Defense

The Cowboys’ opponents held a 44.4% third down conversion last season, which was 102nd in the nation. They have lately struggled with third down defense, although they were only two seasons removed from being 7th in the country. Third down conversions kill a defense’s effectiveness because they both hurt morale and keep defense on the field longer, thus tiring them more.

An improved third down defense will erase any opportunities for the defense to tire when they could have been otherwise resting off the field. Plus, a third down stand means the ball changes hands, giving the offense more opportunities to score. You will notice a theme on this list of doing everything possible to keep the defense fresh. In many people’s minds, the defense’s progressive fatigue led to the team’s downfall in the last three games of the season.

Turnover Margin

The last time that OSU won a Big 12 Championship, they were No. 1 in turnover margin in the nation. Turnovers clearly have a connection to a team’s success. Kyle Porter even recently wrote about the correlation between turnover margin and Big 12 success. Turnovers, like third down defense, put the defense off the field and give the offense another chance to score.

The Cowboys had an exceptional turnover margin in 2015  at +1 per game, which was 4th in the nation. Although the offense struggled at times, they were always pretty good at holding on to the football. The defense found ways to force turnovers, as they were 11th and 18th in interceptions and recovered fumbles, respectively. They weren’t quite at the level of the 2011 Big 12 champion Cowboy team, but they were solid nonetheless. Another positive turnover margin would go a long way in 2016, and could be the difference between a single or double-digit win season.

Yards per Carry

The Cowboys went to a New Years Six bowl game and were very close from a Big 12 Championship despite having one of the worst rushing teams in the nation. The Pokes were ranked 115th in the nation with an abysmal 3.5 yards-per-carry average last season. This was coming off a season where they were 113th, so although it’s hard to imagine, they actually regressed from 2014 to 2015.

The Pokes’ poor running game was their biggest achilles heel. A poor run game is one of the worst weaknesses for a team because of how it can affect an entire team’s effectiveness, both on offense and defense. When a team has no run game, they too often get in the habit of being a hit-or-miss offense, as in they either score quickly off a deep bomb or they immediately go three-and-out; there’s rarely anything in between.

That’s what the Cowboys have done for the past two seasons. This puts a ton of pressure on the defense because they’re on the field longer, and as we saw in this past season, it can wear down a defensive unit over time. The Cowboys tried ways to get out of this habit, whether it be trying different run game wrinkles or drastically slowing the tempo down, but it ultimately wasn’t enough — if the run game stinks, there’s not much more you can do.

An improved run game, and specifically YPC average, would not only give the offense some stability but it would also let the defense to fully utilize the rest time on the sidelines.

What do you think the most important stat will be in 2016? Leave your opinions below in the comments!