Tournament Dreams: Oklahoma State Needs Final-Week Sweep (and Maybe More)

So close. Oklahoma State was so close to playing its way into position for a real shot at the NCAA Tournament this week with a win at Texas on Saturday. Then Kerwin Roach happened, and here we are. OSU is 6-10 and has to sweep Iowa State in Ames and Kansas at home to get to the magic (“magic”) 8-10 mark to have a chance at March Madness.

So that’s the bad news. The good news, I suppose, is that Iowa State is hobbled and Kansas has already wrapped up a share of the Big 12 title (like there was ever any doubt). The carrot won’t dangle quite as far in front of that beast as normal, which could be conducive to GIA coaxing one more victory on Saturday afternoon from these Pokes.

A quick scan of the Bracketologies (aside: remember how ground-breaking those first ESPN Bracketology commercials felt? Man, those were awesome) reveals that Oklahoma State is far enough on the outside looking in that they’ll probably need both a sweep this week and then to do some damage at the Big 12 Tournament next week. CBS Sports doesn’t even have them as a bubble team. SB Nation does, but it’s not among the first four or next four out (I’m also going to ignore the fact that this was posted before the Texas loss).

And yet … what team would have a better set of six wins than this:

“at” No. 19 Florida State
No. 4 Oklahoma at home
at No. 7 Kansas
at No. 19 West Virginia
No. 6 Texas Tech at home
No. 8 Kansas at home

That would be pretty legit, right?

So let’s try to get OSU to eight conference wins based on their remaining 2-game schedule. All data, rankings and predictions are from KenPom.com where OSU is the No. 69 team in the country as of Monday. The KenPom prediction is what percentage chance he gives OSU of winning each game.

Here’s how I’m separating the games.

“Must win” games

• at Iowa State
• Kansas at home

There are worse situations than having to win at ISU and beat Kansas at home in the same week when you haven’t strung together back-to-back victories in conference play since last February … but there aren’t many.

Hilton magic : Oklahoma State hoops as Sooner magic : Mike Gundy, and I take no solace in the fact that Iowa State has lost six of seven with the last two of those coming at home.

What’s going to be interesting is how the Big 12 shakes out. There’s a scenario in which OSU could finish tied for 5th in the league.

Here’s how OSU needs the games to fall.

Kansas beats Texas
OU beats Baylor
Kansas State beats TCU
Iowa State beats OU
West Virginia beats Texas
Kansas State beats Baylor
Texas Tech beats TCU

In that scenario, OSU would tie TCU and OU for 5th with Texas and Baylor below them. That’s … that’s a NCAA Tournament bid … right?

So Oklahoma State is (barely) alive, and with an exclamation mark of becoming the first Big 12 team to sweep Kansas in a season since Bill Self has been the coach, there is going to be some real buzz around this team getting one of the final few spots in the Dance. Of course you have to give yourself the opportunity to hit the last-second shot by beating ISU in Ames on Tuesday to start. This week will be a last gasp at the postseason for OSU, but even that is more than many thought they would accomplish.