Upending a Mini-Dynasty: What’s the Path to Toppling OU in the Big 12?

It’s an unfortunate reality for Oklahoma State that the best era in school history has coincided with one of the better eras in OU history. That is a sentence I’ve written many times over the last decade and must focus on once again as the 2020 season approaches (especially as the 2020 season approaches).

OU has won five straight Big 12 titles and is the favorite to make it six. The Sooners are the OSU wrestling of Big 12 football and are recruiting better than they have in a long, long time.

So what’s the path forward for OSU? How can Mike Gundy take his second Big 12 trophy this year and stymie Lincoln Riley’s in-state momentum? Well, it’s probably not going to be on the recruiting trail, and you’re also going to have a difficult time out OU-ing OU when it comes to offensive firepower.

Look at the last four years’ worth of numbers for OU offensively. Last year, the middle seven teams in the Big 12 averaged between 30-35 a game offensively, good numbers for a league that was more defensive than it’s been in a long time. OU was a TD better. The year before that they were 8 points better than the second-best team. The year before that — the year of the all-time Bedlam in Stillwater — they (along with OSU) were 11 points better than the rest of the Big 12.

And that sort of underscores the point here. If in a year when OSU is 11 points better offensively per game than everybody else in the Big 12 besides OU and the Cowboys still lose to OU by double-digits, then the path forward is not to try and out-flank them with touchdowns. That would be like trying to out-energy Russell Westbrook or out-wingspan Giannis. Here are OU’s points-per-game finishes over the last four years.

The three toughest games OU played last year were against the two best defensive teams in the Big 12, Baylor and Kansas State. K-State beat them, and Baylor probably should have twice. In fact, of the three Big 12 games OU has lost in the last four years, all three have come to tremendous defensive teams that allowed 25 or fewer points per game (KSU in 2019, Texas in 2018, Iowa State in 2017). OSU hasn’t given up 25 or fewer a game since 2013.

To OSU’s credit, this appears to be what they’re trying to do. We place all of our focus on the law firm of Hubbard, Sanders and Wallace, but it’s really on the defensive side where they’re trying to build something special. This is smart. Getting into a track meet with OU is like getting into a track meet with Usain Bolt. But if you can get Bolt in the heptathlon on the right day, then you actually have a chance.

“I thought we had a great finish to last year,” said defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. “We really helped the team win some games. We have a shot to have everybody healthy. I see veteran players who know what to do and have a lot of speed. I see more depth than ever and a chance to be a well-rounded unit.”

In 2018, OSU gave up 38 a game in conference play (last in the league). That’s not going to compete for many championships. Last year, that number improved to 28 a game. This year? OSU loses only a handful of players from its two-deep (most notably, A.J. Green) and should be even better than that 28-a-game number. OSU should be sneaking down to the 25-a-game territory, which again — as we saw above — is the range at which you’re possibly able to roll with OU as long as your offense is also sound (and OSU’s offense is almost always sound).

Taking down a titan is never easy, and whoever does it will have earned it. I don’t know whether that will be Oklahoma State this season, but the pieces are certainly there. Because while we were focused on No. 2 and No. 30 returning to score points, maybe we should have been focused on No. 31 and No. 94 returning to stop them. The path through OU to another conference trophy for Oklahoma State does not look like becoming an OU facsimile. Rather, it looks like maintaining a decade-long proficiency on offense and beginning to build a unit on the other side of the ball that can disrupt what Riley and his endless string of QBs are trying to do. It looks like zigging while OU zags.