When it Comes to the NCAA Tournament Bubble, Logic Has Been Thrown Out

I don’t know Joe Lunardi. I’ve never met him. He seems like a nice enough guy. Probably a little nerdy, a little deep in the numbers game. I can appreciate that. We would probably have a nice conversation in real life. But what he said on SportsCenter on Monday night was completely and totally illogical.

Aside: The last three days have made me feel like I’m taking crazy pills. I can’t be alone on this island, but it feels like I am. Maybe Mrs. Pistols is slipping hallucinogenics in my oatmeal every morning. Who knows.

Anyway, here are Lunardi’s arguments for having Oklahoma State out of the tournament. These are direct quotes.

“Here’s what (OSU’s) real record is at 18-13. They’re really 11-13 because they have seven cupcakes, which is a staggeringly high number for a team in their spot.”

What he’s referencing is wins over Pittsburgh, ORU, Pepperdine, UT-Rio Grande Valley, Charlotte, HBU and Mississippi Valley State. All seven of those teams are ranked outside the RPI top 200 so, according to Lunardi, those wins don’t count.

I actually think this is fair! However …

“Arizona State for instance … just a couple (of cupcakes).”

OK, well let’s look at Arizona State and Oklahoma State since he brought them up. He has ASU in as a No. 11 seed as of Tuesday.

Record against RPI Nos. 1-50

Oklahoma State: 7-9
Arizona State: 5-3

Record against RPI Nos. 51-100

Oklahoma State: 1-4
Arizona State: 4-6

So OSU is 8-13 against RPI top 100 teams. Arizona State is 9-9. OK.

Record agains RPI Nos. 101-200

Oklahoma State: 3-0
Arizona State: 6-1

Record agains RPI Nos. 201-300

Oklahoma State: 7-0
Arizona State: 5-0

First of all, ASU has five cupcakes, which is not just “a couple of cupcakes.” Also, Oklahoma State played three more top 100 teams than ASU did. How does this not matter?! But because ASU played four more teams from No. 101-200 than OSU did, they’re in? What are we doing?!

And it all matters how you differentiate them (WHICH IS COMPLETELY ARBITRARY). Consider what happens when you draw the line at RPI No. 170 instead of RPI No. 200. OSU played seven teams ranked No. 170 or worse. The same number as Arizona State! Why can’t I stop using exclamation points?!

This was my primary argument from yesterday — who cares what teams are ranked when you get into the 150s, 200s and 300s. They’re all the same! I lamented to one of my golf writing friends one time that I’m frustrated that I don’t know the difference statistically-speaking between Brendan Steele and Keegan Bradley. “You don’t need to, he said, “because there is no difference!”

ASU scheduled teams like UC Irvine (No. 130), San Francisco (No. 136) and Pacific (No. 186). These are the teams ranked between 101-200 that are buoying its NCAA Tournament chances. On the flip side, OSU scheduled Pepperdine (same conference as San Francisco and Pacific) and Pittsburgh. It’s not Oklahoma State’s fault that those teams stink and that San Francisco and Pepperdine turned to be marginally better, and yet that’s what RPI is dependent on!

Also, is it better to go 10-0 against teams from 101 and beyond or go 11-1?

Back to Joseph.

“If the committee has been consistent about one thing over the years, if you are right there on the cut line — whether you agree with this or not — they look at nonconference schedule. People say, ‘hey, that doesn’t show what you can do when you play up.’ What it does show is you missed an opportunity to maybe lose more games.”

Joe Lunardi on #okstate’s NCAA tournament chances. Says they only have 11 wins due to cupcakes. pic.twitter.com/ZKpFLjWvmo

— Carson Cunningham (@KOCOCarson) March 6, 2018

After listening to and transcribing that last sentence, I don’t want to be alive. You missed an opportunity to maybe lose more games! We’re back to the theoretical stuff from the College Football Playoff. Well, Bama does have the best recruits …

Why isn’t Arizona State docked because OSU played three more top 100 games than they did? That’s three more chances to lose.

Also, this argument completely falls apart when you start looking at some of the mid-major teams, as PFB Nate pointed out. St. Mary’s is an especially fun one. They played 17 teams ranked No. 170 or worse. Take away those wins and they’re 12-5. They have 12 wins against top 170 teams, OSU has 11. St. Mary’s is a No. 10 seed.

St. Mary’s lost last night and genius Joe still has them easily in the field. They have a whopping 4 wins against the top 100 and wait for it…. 12 (TWELVE!) against teams 200+ compared to OSU’s 7. What a total sham this whole thing is. https://t.co/xkKwfrC6PR

— PFB_Nate (@PFB_Nate) March 6, 2018

Ultimately what I say doesn’t matter, but we need a better way to statistically evaluate 1. Wins agains top teams and 2. Wins against bottom teams. The fact that a win against KU on the road can go in the same bucket as a neutral court victory against South Dakota State is crazy. The opposite is true of bad teams. Beating 14-16 Tulane at home should not be more valuable than beating 8-21 Presbyterian on the road, but as it stands right now, it is.

Hopefully all of this is solved by Oklahoma State thumping OU on Wednesday evening in Kansas City, and we have to watch Joe explain where the best player in the country is going to be opening the NIT.