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Why is OSU Football’s Projected Win Total in 2023 So Low?

6.5 wins … on the season?!



Devin Wilber/PFB

Is OSU football going to be a borderline bowl team in 2023?

Let me ask you that question in a slightly different way: If I told you OSU would win six games this upcoming season, you’d definitely call me crazy and laugh at me, right? … Right? …

Vegas oddsmakers don’t seem to be as intoxicated on the orange Kool-Aid bullish as myself and possibly other OSU fans, though. Vegas Insider has over/unders on win totals for every team this upcoming season, and OSU’s — as you might have inferred — is hilariously low to the point of bringing up a wait, what am I missing here type feeling: 6.5.

Six. Point. Five.


Here’s some context: Only BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, West Virginia and Iowa State have a lower over/under for the upcoming season. UCF and Kansas are both tied with OSU at 6.5.

West Virginia5.5
Iowa State5.5
Oklahoma State6.5
Texas Tech7.5
Kansas State7.5

If you extrapolate that out and compare to the preseason Big 12 poll, it’s roughly in line with how voters see OSU. The Pokes were seventh in the preseason poll and tie with the seventh-highest over/under with UCF and Kansas, though interestingly, both UCF and Kansas were below OSU in the poll and tied with OSU in the over/under sheet.

It gets even trickier when you look at Caesars Sportsbook’s odds to win the CFP: OSU has the eighth-best odds to win among Big 12 teams, with Iowa State — a team with a 5.5 over/under win total — owning better odds than OSU.

That aligns with Caesars’ odds for the Big 12 title winner as well, for those keeping track at home.

What does it mean, you ask? Well, infer what you will, but it’s pretty clear OSU’s projected win total this season is much lower than people may be willing to accept. I’m not sure Vegas oddsmakers are right, of course, and I think over the years OSU has made a habit of outperforming preseason expectations, but 6.5 wins for 2023 — with one of the easiest schedules in college football — sure feels preposterous as we sit here in late July. Let’s hope the folks in Vegas know less than they seem to think they do about this team.

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