Why Oklahoma State *Probably* Can’t Rise Above the Texas Bowl

If you somehow (?) missed it over the weekend, Oklahoma State qualified for its 13th bowl in 13 years and extended one of the longest streaks in the nation in the process. We discussed where Oklahoma State might end up, and Berry Tramel opined about it on Sunday, too.

OSU theoretically could fall all the way to the Armed Forces Bowl or even out of the Big 12’s bowl slate altogether if TCU beats them and Kansas State beats Iowa State. That would give OSU the eighth-best Big 12 record (3-6). There are only seven Big 12 bowls (depending on how the CFP and other NY6 bowls shake out). In this scenario OSU would still go to a bowl, just not a bowl that has Big 12-specific ties.

But for the sake of this argument let’s say OSU wins at TCU this weekend to get to 7-5 on the year and 4-5 in the Big 12. There is no way for OSU (or any of the teams in the bottom six in the Big 12) to move into the top four no matter what happens.

What that means is that the best any of those bottom teams can hope for is probably the Texas Bowl. The top four bowls for the Big 12 are the Sugar, Alamo, Camping World and Texas Bowl in that order.

Even if OU gets into the CFP or the Big 12 gets two teams into the NY6 bowls, the Alamo and Camping World will still be occupied by two of OU, West Virginia, Texas and Iowa State. The only scenario in which OSU would get to the Camping World (imagine that being something to aspire to) or Alamo is if the Big 12 were to get three NY6 teams, which is not happening.

Here’s how I see it going after WVU beats OU on Friday (spoiler: OU’s defense stinks) and Texas handles Kansas then beats WVU in the Big 12 title game.

• Sugar Bowl: Texas
• Alamo Bowl: OU
• Camping World Bowl: West Virginia
• Texas Bowl: Iowa State

That would probably put OSU in the Liberty Bowl if they beat TCU because they would be the fifth-best Big 12 team based on overall record (although they would be tied with somebody else at 4-5 in the Big 12). But let’s say a 10-2 OU team is a sexy pick for the Fiesta Bowl, though, as Berry noted here. That would make it look like this.

• Sugar Bowl: Texas
• Fiesta Bowl: OU
• Alamo Bowl: West Virginia
• Camping World Bowl: Iowa State

In that scenario OSU would probably go to the Texas Bowl (which would be a nice save for what has been an inconsistent year). This means we have two reasons to root against OU on Friday — 1. They’re OU and 2. Better potential bowl for OSU because WVU and Texas probably won’t get into a NY6 bowl if they don’t win the Big 12. The more teams in NY6 games, the better it is for OSU. If WVU wins the Big 12 (which they won’t) then I have no idea what’s going to happen.

Obviously all of this depends on OSU beating TCU on Saturday, but even if that happens, I don’t see any way for the Pokes to rise above and beyond the Texas Bowl in Houston on December 27.