2020 Feels Like Make or Break Year for Texas, Herman

If Texas was ever going to be back, it feels like 2020 would be the year. Yet still, the Big 12 media predicted the Longhorns to finish third in Friday’s preseason poll.

Texas was picked behind Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and it makes sense based off previous seasons. The Sooners have won the past five Big 12 titles, and the Cowboys return a three-headed monster on offense and 10 of 11 defensive starters from 2019.

Even with OSU’s returning success, I was surprised (though I thought it was correct) that the Cowboys polled ahead of a Texas team with Sam Ehlinger entering his senior season. Ehlinger’s experience and all the four- and five-star recruits in Austin are usually the things media hone in on, so I fully expected to see Friday’s poll read OU, UT, OSU.

That feels like a dangerous spot to be for Texas when even at what should be its best, it’s still picked to finish third in the Big 12.

How could Texas be at its best entering 2020 you might ask?

Well it starts with Ehlinger. Say what you will about him, but he is a veteran of 36 games at this point, and he has completed 63.2 percent of his 1,154 career pass attempts for 8,870 yards and 68 touchdowns. He has also ran for another 1,526 yards and 25 scores.

Another reason Texas should be good in 2020 is the way Tom Herman has recruited since he returned to his alma mater in 2017. It’s Herman’s fourth year as Texas’ head coach, meaning he has his guys in the program. Herman’s 2018, 2019 and 2020 classes all topped the Big 12, so at this point there should be a stockpile of capable talent ready to play for UT.

Comparatively, Mike Gundy’s past three recruiting classes all ranked fifth in the Big 12.  Here is a comparison between the two by their recruiting classes in the 247Sports’ composite point system:

The formula doesn’t exactly work like this, but just adding those numbers up, Texas has a score of 861.22 to OSU’s 605.15. That’s a 256.07 difference, about the size of a whole other recruiting class. And OSU is projected ahead of Texas?

This is the perfect type of material for the “recruiting rankings don’t matter” crowd. If you’re a part of that crowd, let me know how Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State are doing in recruiting and on the field and get back to me.

Texas’ cash flow also clobbers that of Oklahoma State. USAToday released its fiscal year 2019 numbers this week, noting that Texas revenue of $223,879,781 led the country. UT’s expenses were second in the nation (behind Ohio State) at $204,234,897, meaning UT’s athletic department came out $19,644,884 in the clear. OSU’s revenue (which ranked 45th nationally) was $95,335,482. Expenses were $95,008,483 for a $326,999 profit. And a group of 90 media predicted OSU’s football team to be better than UT’s?

The point of what I’m trying to say isn’t that Texas is back because I’m not sure that it is. The point of this is to say that if Texas doesn’t come back soon change should be coming.