Why OSU Will Win / Why OSU Will Lose: Kansas State

Oklahoma State welcomes the Fighting Bill Snyders to Stillwater this weekend in what the experts are predicting the be a blowout. The Cowboys opened as a 17.5-point favorite, a line that has grown to 20.

While on paper, it certainly seems like a lopsided matchup, this has been a close series. As we’ve discussed, despite a 5-2 record over the last seven games, Kansas State has outscored the Cowboys during that stretch by 19 points.

So, let’s take a look at why both teams have a chance in this game.

Why OSU Will Win

They Should

I realize this seems arrogant, but Oklahoma State has no business getting into a real game with Kansas State this season.

The Wildcats enter the game with a true freshman quarterback making the second start of his career. Last week he went 13 for 25 for 159 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions.

OSU has won 22*-straight against unranked opponents (*if you count Central Michigan as a win) and they haven’t lost to Kansas State in Stillwater since 1999.

Kansas State doesn’t have the horses on defense to slow Oklahoma State down, and they don’t have the offense to play catch-up.

Yes, history and what you see on paper don’t win football games. But they tell a lot of the story in this one.

Close Games

As we’ve said, OSU’s average margin of victory in their last six wins over Kansas State is 5.8 points. These games are often close, including when they shouldn’t be (looking at you 2015).

But Oklahoma State has been amazing in close games. They’ve won 14 of their last 15*  games decided by eight or fewer points. Yes, eventually that run will end, but even if this game comes down to a touchdown or less, I don’t see it ending this weekend.

Why OSU Will Lose

Red Zone defense

If there has been one place that OSU has had issues this season, it’s scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Unfortunately, defending in the red zone is a strength for Kansas State.

The Wildcats have the 11th best red-zone defense in the FBS allowing allowing opponents only 18 touchdowns on 37 red-zone possessions. They’ve allowed 27 red-zone scores total, including nine field goals.

Oklahoma State hasn’t been bad in the red zone; they’ve scored on 86% of their red-zone possessions (50/58), but 12 of those scores have been field goals However, they’ve only scored touchdowns on 65.5% of those RZ possessions.

If Kansas State can hold OSU to field goals in the red zone, this game will be closer than Cowboys fans expect it to be.

Strengths & Weaknesses

There are few things Kansas State does well that OSU does not.

For one thing, the Wildcats are plus-9 in turnover margin this season. They’ve forced 20 and only turned the ball over 11 times. Meanwhile OSU is just plus-1 having forced 20 and lost 19.

Then comes special teams. We all know OSU’s haven’t been great. Kansas State is ranked 9th in the country on punt return yards, averaging 15.0 per game with one punt return TD. On kickoffs, Kansas State is the nation’s 12th-best yards at 25.6 yards per game and also has a kickoff return touchdown.

It’s the little things that can really matter in a football game. And while individually none of these things should be a major concern, we’ve seen OSU play mistake-filled games this season. If they do the same thing again on Saturday, Kansas State is just the desperate type of team to take advantage of the situation.