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College Football Playoff Rankings Continue to be Insane (also Continue to be Fun)

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6 years ago

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On Tuesday the new College Football Playoff rankings were released, and Oklahoma State was No. 13. With basically no shot at the CFP, Oklahoma State can only play spoiler now (and only if TCU gives them the chance).

Aside: How good would it feel to end OU’s dreams and take the Big 12 in the process?

Nov-15-2017 09-17-10

Anyway, in a less emotional way, the CFP show was still insane. Alabama moved to No. 1 (yawn) but Clemson moved to No. 2 after beating lowly FSU 31-14. Miami was at No. 3 followed by OU at No. 4.

OU was at No. 5 last week with Clemson at No. 4, but OU hammered 8-1 TCU in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicated. With wins at Ohio State and Oklahoma State and that TCU trouncing, why did the committee still rank Clemson, whose best win is 14-6 over Auburn, over the Sooners?

Injuries. And defense.

“With Clemson we continue to look at their total resume and their six wins against teams with a winning record is more than any other team in the top 25 this week,” said CFP committee chairman Kirby Hocutt. “They have two top-25 wins. I think they’ve been impressive to the selection committee not only at home but on the road with two road wins at Virginia Tech and North Carolina State. The selection committee continues to be impressed with how they’re playing on the defensive side of the ball.”

Clemson has the No. 4 defense in terms of points per drive. They allow 1.03 points per drive. Their offense is No. 40, and they average 2.40 PPD, slightly better than Iowa State. OU’s offense is No. 1. Its defense is No. 91.

It gets better, though. Hocutt addressed Clemson’s only loss — a road game against Syracuse (which is 4-6 on the season).

“We’re aware of things that transpire in particular games,” said Hocutt. “Their quarterback came into that game against Syracuse hobbled, looked like he was playing with an injured ankle. He was not 100 percent to begin with, and then when he was concussed in the second quarter, he missed the remaining part of that second quarter and the second half. He came back, they had a bye week, he came back two weeks later and appeared healthy and is back at full strength.

“When we look at Oklahoma’s loss to Iowa State, there was no such injury that the selection committee has talked about or is aware of in Oklahoma’s loss to Iowa State. We’re aware of all facets of all things that transpire within a particular game, and we continue to take into account with Clemson’s loss the injury to their quarterback and also the fact that he came into that game not 100 percent.”

A few thoughts

• By factoring in injuries to how you view teams, while unsurprising, is not a great precedent. You’re incentivizing top teams to pull key players in games that are going sideways if they’re remotely dinged because you’ve already noted that you factor that in. I mean, this is insane. Part of sports is staying healthy and having good backups. But all of this illuminates my next point.

• All the committee is doing with the CFP is forcing the schools that recruit best and have had the most recent success to not disprove that they’re worthy of a top four spot. This is their intended goal, remember.

The committee’s task is to select the 25 best teams in college football, rank the teams for inclusion in the playoff and selected other bowl games and then assign the teams to bowl sites.

The 25 best. Here’s the problem: Which team is better right now between TCU and Oklahoma State? It’s not TCU. However, the game those two teams played matters, or it should. But it doesn’t in the system we currently have. An egalitarian system says TCU is better. A committee could feasibly say OSU if the Pokes romp Kansas State this weekend. Extrapolate that out across conferences and around the country, and you can see the issue.

The committee goes into these meetings with preconceived notions that the teams that recruit the best (or, say, won the title last year) are the best. I don’t blame them. That’s what they said they were going to do, and that’s what they’re doing. So it’s easy to come up with excuses as to why those teams didn’t win certain games (i.e. injuries). You don’t have to prove a ton to the committee if you’re Clemson or Alabama or Ohio State, you just have to avoid disproving something (or if you’re Ohio State you have to avoid disproving 193 things).

• To recap: OU has three wins over top 13 teams in the CFP (two on the road), and Clemson has one over top 18 teams in the CFP. At home. In which they scored 14 points. But the committee doesn’t like offense this week so … yeah. I can’t believe I’m defending OU here, but at some point somebody has to open up the notion that maybe the Big 12 isn’t as bad as everyone thinks.

The committee noted that OU’s loss to Iowa State is keeping them from moving up. CLEMSON LOST TO 4-6 SYRACUSE! The criteria here are a moving target, and are used to support whatever narrative the committee wants to purport.

• I randomly came across this note on the CFP site: Every FBS team has equal access to the College Football Playoff based on its performance. No team automatically qualifies. Lol! Call North Texas’ AD and tell him that!

• All of this remains insane and hilarious and bemusing. As someone with a rooting interest in a school I cover, it can be maddening. But as someone who appreciates absurd spectacles, it’s actually a lot of fun.

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