Four Reasons OSU Won’t Win a Big 12 Title in 2020

Kyle Porter already filled your cups with orange Kool-Aid when he laid out his reasons that OSU will win a Big 12 title this fall. I’m here to serve as the killjoy.

Far be it from me to guarantee anything when it comes to college football, especially based on offseason expectations of Oklahoma State, but these are three reasons I think OSU probably doesn’t get over the hump.

1. They’d Have to Be Perfect

The margin for error is much thinner when you’re reeling in 38th, 34th, 38th and 45th recruiting classes. Those are Oklahoma State’s recruiting rankings nationally for the four years leading into this fall. Does OSU have dynamic playmakers? Yes. The Cowboys have potential game-changers all over their offense and a handful on defense.

But they still don’t have the blue-chip skill to expect to play anything but a perfect game and still out-talent, say, a Kansas State or Baylor. We have too many examples over the last half dozen years when the Pokes looked up at halftime and were down to bottom-dwelling Texas Tech team.

The Cowboys will need to show up and show out against the middling and lesser squads just to be in the conversation for a place at Jerry’s table, and they haven’t shown the ability to do that consistently in quite some time.

2. They’d Have to Stay Healthy

We can go no further back than last year when two key injuries lowered the Cowboys’ ceiling. If LSU lost its starting QB and wide receiver by mid-November we’d have a different reigning champ, sure.

But think back to 2017 heading into Big 12 play. The Pokes had stomped Pittsburgh on the road, were a top 15 team and there was actual Heisman buzz around Mason Rudolph. What happened? A couple of key injuries on the offensive line was apparently enough for the Cowboys to stumble.

None of these things are in a vacuum. They still could have (and almost did) come back against TCU. This just goes back to point No. 1. The margin is razor thin and OSU can’t afford even a couple of injuries in certain spots if they want to punch their ticket to Arlington.

3. That Crimson Elephant in the Room

The Big 12 title game may be in north Texas but the league still runs through Norman. The Cowboys may not have to win in Norman to get there, but that will most likely mean beating the Sooners to claim their trophy is a must. Wouldn’t that be sweet?

History tells us that beating Oklahoma is hard. And that it’s even harder if you share a state with them. For all of our sake, I won’t include the Bedlam record.

Mike Gundy can do it if…

4. If He Catches Lightning in a Bottle

It happened nine years ago. Why couldn’t it happen again, right? The Cowboys have the weapons with Tylan Wallace and Chuba Hubbard, and Braydon Johnson a good candidate for a dynamic WR2. If Spencer Sanders takes that next step (and more) this offense will be among the best in the league.

Can Kasey Dunn put a mute button on his headset? Can Sanders play up to his ceiling and an all-conference level? Does OSU’s defense continue the improvement with star performances from the likes of Kolby Harvell-Peel and Trace Ford?

Give me yeses across the board and I’d take OSU’s chances against just about anyone in the league, and I’d be cringing a little less walking into Bedlam. Can the Cowboys do it? Yes. Will they? It’s going to be really, really hard.