Kansas Preview: OSU Looks to Cap the Season with a Win Over the Big 12’s Best

The Cowboys look to follow up a road win over the Big 12’s worst against a home win against the league’s best. If Saturday’s Senior Night ends with an OSU win, it would be their first conference winning streak great than one, and the only chance the Cowboys have of sniffing the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation.

First off, here’s how to tune in, if you won’t be packing into GIA.

• When: Saturday, March 3 at 3 p.m.
• Where: Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, Okla.
• TV:  ESPN2
• Webcast: ESPN3.com or ESPN app
• Radio: Cowboy Radio Network (Dave Hunziker and John Holcomb)

The Cowboys got the best of the Jayhawks inside The Phog one month ago. Can they complete their first home-and-away sweep of Kansas in 35 years? Let’s take a look at this matchup through the lens of KenPom’s Four Factors.

Offense

The Jayhawks, who looked human for a brief stretch earlier in the season, have rattled off five straight conference wins including a 30-point blowout of the Sooners in Lawrence. KU has the 32nd-ranked scoring offense and comes in at No. 9 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage per KenPom.

During this recent win streak, KU is averaging 83.6 points per game and shooting 57.3 percent from the field and 42.7 percent from 3. If the Cowboys want to enjoy a court-storming to end Senior Night, they’ll need to disrupt the Jayhawks’ hot shooting streak.

In Round 1 of this matchup, the Cowboys scored 20 points off of just 11 Kansas turnovers, at one point sitting at 15 points on KU’s first five. That’s a ridiculous number and just might be the type of thing the Cowboys need to pull out to get the W.

Defense

The Jayhawks come in at No. 6 in the Big 12 (No. 136 nationally) in scoring defense but do rank 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. They don’t force a ton of turnovers but they limit good shots from opposing offenses.

Oklahoma State will need to try to attack KU in transition off of rebounds and any turnovers they can force. OSU just hasn’t been as good in half-court sets this season. Any of those four to five minute scoring droughts we’ve grown accustomed to may prove disastrous against this KU offense.

Keep an Eye On: Devonte’ Graham

You just thought Oklahoma State was done playing the Big 12 Player of the Year. But Graham may have Trae Young in what looked like a runaway race for that award and possibly national POY honors. He’s been the most valuable player on the best team in college basketball’s best league.

The senior floor general leads the league in minutes played and assist-to-turnover ratio and is second only to Young in scoring and assists. All things run through him. Also, he’s awesome.

Key for OSU: Second-Chance Points

I wrote about this earlier in the week, but the Cowboys beat Iowa State, and Kansas for that matter, by out-hustling, rebounding and then being effective in second-chance scoring opportunities.

The Cowboys’ formula to beat the Jayhawks is a combination of wanting it more (see below), riding a hopefully rowdy crowd on Senior Night and then knocking down shots.

When this team plays with effort and knocks down its open looks, it can hang with anyone in the country. But the margin for error is as slim as you’re going to find, so a little luck couldn’t hurt either.

Outlook

Winning on Saturday would represent a rare occurrence in this series. The last time OSU beat Kansas twice was during the 1999-00 season, and neither was in Lawrence. The two teams haven’t always played multiple games twice every year, granted. But the last home-and-away sweep by the Pokes over the Jayhawks was all the way back in the 1982-83 season.

KenPom gives the Pokes just a 35-percent chance of completing the historic sweep. But with the Jayhawks’ Big 12 title streak already extended to 14 and with the Cowboys fighting for their postseason lives, who knows what could happen.