PFB Picks: Predicting Oklahoma State’s Week 9 Matchup Against Iowa State

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The Cowboys are headed to Ames for a spooky clash with the Cyclones.

Oklahoma State plays Iowa State at 6 p.m. Saturday at Jack Trice Stadium.

Here’s how we see the game playing out. No uniform predictions this week, as OSU announced super early that the Cowboys are going all orange to play off Iowa State’s all black for a fun Halloween matchup.

What We’re Predicting

Caleb Hawkins over/under 55.5 receiving yards: The Cowboys have been using Hawkins in the passing game more often in recent weeks. After catching no passes against West Virginia, Hawkins has averaged 76.3 receiving yards a game in the Cowboys’ past three contests.

Iowa State over/under 18.8 points: That’s the Cyclones’ average number of points in Big 12 games, as they scored 17 against Utah, 45 against West Virginia, 10 against BYU and 3 against Arizona.

TD Parlay: You can name as many players who you think will score a touchdown (passing TDs don’t count), and you get two points for each player you name. However if you name a guy who doesn’t score a touchdown, you get no points in this section.

Score: Three points are up for grabs here: one for guessing the correct winner, one for being on the right side of the spread (OSU -9.5) and one to whichever one of us gets closest to the actual score.

Marshall Scott

Caleb Hawkins over/under 55.5 receiving yards: Over

OSU’s run game has been a bit up and down of late, but it’s evident that this offense is at its best when Hawkins is heavily involved. I think Eric Morris continues to get the ball in Hawkins’ hands by any means necessary.

Iowa State over/under 18.8 points: Over

The Cowboys haven’t held an FBS team below 20 all season, so I don’t think that’s going to happen in a night game in Ames. But (spoiler alert) I don’t think the Cyclones are going to score much more than that number.

TD Parlay: Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins, Wyatt Young

As I’m behind, I’m going with OSU’s big three. I was close to going for an 8-pointer with Justin Bowick but didn’t want to get too over my skis.

Score: Oklahoma State 48, Iowa State 21

By just about every statistical measure, the Cowboys are the better football team. The playing in Ames on Halloween part is a little spooky, but I think the Cowboys take care of business in a big way.

Kyle Cox

Caleb Hawkins over/under 55.5 receiving yards: Under

Iowa State over/under 18.8 points: Under

TD Parlay: Wyatt Young, Justin Bowick, Morgan McPhaul

Score: Oklahoma State 42, Iowa State 17

I think the Cowboys continue to roll in Ames. The Cyclones are just struggling right now, and they haven’t been able to slow anyone especially in the run game. I think the Pokes get things going on the ground which opens things up in the second half. I expect a big win for OSU but also wouldn’t be shocked if it’s something like 14-10 at halftime.

Tyler Waldrep

Caleb Hawkins over/under 55.5 receiving yards: Over

Oklahoma State passed to him early last week. It feels like they want to find more ways to get the ball in his hands even though at times the Pokes struggle to run the ball.

My biggest concern is I do think the Cowboys can run on Iowa State which might decrease the need to pass to Hawkins. For this pick, I broke my tie in favor of more receiving yards because I think Eric Morris and staff are still trying to develop a core identity. So even though they can run Hawkins they will still mix in enough passing plays for him to hit the over.

Iowa State over/under 18.8 points: Over

The Cowboys are talented enough to smother the life out of the Cyclones, but they lack the consistency.

The commitment from the staff to LaDainian Fields and Mo Horn at corner is a positive development. I still worry about the depth at safety. I’ll take the over mostly banking on a let down at some point and Iowa State’s consistent ability to score when it reaches the red zone (100%, currently).

TD Parlay: Justin Bowick, Wyatt Young, Caleb Hawkins

Young has scored in six straight games, and Bowick has found the end zone in the last five. Those guys are just weekly locks for me now.

I’m picking Hawkins just because running backs seem to have success against the Cyclones. I wouldn’t be shocked if William Mason scores in addition to or even instead of Hawkins, but I’d rather see him play ahead of Ayo Adeyi one more time before going all in here.

Score: Oklahoma State 41, Iowa State 21

Iowa State’s resume just looks less impressive to me by the week. I think the Cyclones will be a tough out, but just can’t imagine them keeping up with or slowing down Drew Mestemaker.

This feels like another slow start for the Cowboys that turns into a second-half blowout as Mestemaker and the running backs create enough space that OSU’s defense can really tee off on whichever Iowa State quarterback plays most of the final two quarters.

Scoreboard

Last week was a not good, very bad prediction week by yours truly, but it was a big week for Justin Southwell.

Justin added a half-point after a discussion as to what we should do with his prediction for OSU’s second-leading tackler last week. Justin picked Ethan Wesloski, who finished tied for first in tackles. He gets a half-point.

1. Kyle Cox — 42
2. Nathan Gilsleider — 39
3. Tyler Waldrep — 37
4. Justin Southwell — 36.5
5. Marshall Scott — 33