The Big 12 May Want an Expanded Playoff, but They Won’t Say it Publicly

The College Football Playoff will eventually expand. It won’t happen in 2019 or 2020, and it probably won’t happen in the few years after that, but at some point four teams will become six or eight or maybe even 10, and I think we all know the reason for that.

But first … Big 12 commish Bob Bowlsby was asked about all of this on Monday at Big 12 Media Days, and his primary talking point might make you think all is well behind closed doors.

“As we think about the evaluation of the CFP and considerations on a look-in basis as to what the future looks like, we have to remember that the aspirations that we had at the outset have been more than achieved and it’s been a success well beyond any comparison to any sort of predecessor organizations or playoff,” said Bowlsby.

There are a lot of buzzwords in there, but I’ll translate for you: It’s paying well, and it seems relatively fair. Let’s not rock the boat.

Howevah! Bowlsby didn’t stop there. When pressed again later, he gave a more … robust answer to the ever-pervasive question.

“I’m looking at the back row and been looking at Kirby Hocutt and Bill Hancock. Bill is anxiously awaiting my answer to this. He knows that I’m capable of going off the reservation,” said Bowlsby.

???

“We have had a lot of discussions. We are evaluating the current environment, which as I stated earlier I think we all agree is superior to any of the predecessor organizations but I’m not going to get into any of the specifics of what we’re talking about.

“We have had some conversations. We’re going to have some more. We will take a look back and we will take a look forward, and eventually we will have some recommendations. In the interim we’re just not going to spend anytime talking about what our discussions are about.”

As George Schroeder pointed out, maybe this was a purposeful bit of … what … leverage? A power play?

Possible new talking point from Power Five commissioners re: possible Playoff expansion. —>

Essentially: Yeah, we’re not gonna discuss publicly whatever we might be discussing.

(It’ll be interesting to hear the other commissioners this week and next.) https://t.co/6OczCUBUW6

— George Schroeder (@GeorgeSchroeder) July 15, 2019

Regardless, it echoes what Bowlsby said early in 2019 as last season was winding down and Alabama and Clemson were hurtling toward one another.

“I just don’t think we can be tone deaf,” Bowlsby told ESPN regarding CFP expansion. “We’ve got to be open-minded about it. Just because we talk about something doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.”

The Big 12 has had a representative in three of the five playoffs (and by “a representative,” I mean OU has played in three of the five playoffs thus far). But Bowlsby is simply acknowledging what all of us already know: That the path to an eight-team playoff is paved with literal gold bricks and cash-lined banana stands.

ESPN’s Heather Dinich has done some really good reporting around this, and you can read all of it here. This was the money shot for me (the actual ? shot).

According to CFP executive director Bill Hancock, each Power 5 conference will receive an estimated $62 million base payout from the CFP, including $300,000 for each team that meets the NCAA’s APR for participation in a postseason football game. The SEC, Big 12 and ACC each will receive $6 million for their teams’ having participated in the semifinals. Notre Dame also will receive $6 million. Each conference will receive an additional $4 million for its team having played in the Fiesta and Peach Bowls (American, Big Ten and SEC times two). [ESPN]

That is … a lot of money.

And it’s all part of a 12-year, $7.2 billion (b, not m) deal between ESPN and the CFP. That deal runs through 2026, at which point many people who know things think it could increase by 50 percent as long as the CFP is expanded.

The College Football Playoff will eventually expand to eight teams within the length of the current contract and be worth at least $10 billion, former CBS Sports president Neal Pilson predicted in a conversation with CBS Sports this week. [CBS Sports]

That’s staggering, but I’m also a little dubious at the numbers. Ratings for these playoffs are all over the place. What will they look like in 2026? Will there be enough momentum to increase the contract that much.

Even if there isn’t — even if they only increase it 10 percent or 5 percent — you’re telling me that the conferences (in association with the CFP) are going to look at an expanded playoff and say, “You know, getting more teams into this for more money seems like a bad idea. I say we don’t do it.”

Because sports organizations have a long history of doing that.

So yes, CFP expansion is coming — I’m excited for the 2024 season when OSU goes 12-1, finishes fifth, and ushers it in! — and it’s going to be lucrative and awesome. You can bet that Bowlsby sees this writing on the wall and is trying to figure out how to get everyone else to see it too.