When it was announced that Jarred Shaw was transferring last week I had about the most cerebrally violent reaction one can possibly have about someone leaving school who averaged 2.4 combined points and rebounds for an entire year.
Obviously my recoil wasn’t solely because Shaw is out but really just a reaction to what is the exclamation point on a mass exodus of athletes from GIA.
The Cowboys will only be returning 46% of their points from 2010-2011 and 51% of their minutes. That’s not necessarily a bad thing if you feel confident those numbers can be replaced and even surpassed (because, let’s face it, last year’s numbers aren’t getting it done this year).
So let’s break this down John Hollinger-style and look at what we have leaving and what we have coming back for next season.
Marshall Moses – 14 PPG | 7 RPG
Matt Pilgrim – 5 PPG | 6 RPG
Nick Sidorakis – 2 PPG
Darrell Williams (presumably) – 7 PPG | 7 RPG
Ray Penn – 6 PPG | 1 APG
Roger Franklin – 2 PPG | 2 RPG
Jarred Shaw – 1 PPG | 1 RPG
OSU is losing a lot. A lot more than the 37 PPG and 23 RPG implies. Sidorakis, Franklin, and Moses were impeccably integrated into this seemingly tight-knit group of guys and they’re all being yanked from the equation. The dynamics of the locker room will be totally different next year. I’m not going to pretend to know who was a leader, who “the guy” was, or what went on behind the scenes. But I have questions. A lot of them. And I’m not sure I want to know the answers.
Keiton Page – 13 PPG | 2 APG
Markel Brown – 6 PPG | 3 RPG | 1 APG
JPO – 11 PPG | 4 RPG | 1 APG
Mike Cobbins – No stats
Brian Williams – No stats
Fred Gulley – 2 PPG | 3 RPG | 1 APG
Reger Dowell – 5 PPG | 1 APG
A pair of slashers, a shooter, and a half-proven point guard. And one guy who averaged more than one assist per game.
That’s not really the killer arsenal you want to “re-load” with, especially when “re-loading” in this case means returning mostly fringe guys from a team that went 6-10 in conference play last year. I’m curiously interested in Cobbins and Williams. I’ve literally heard nothing but raving reviews from the coaches as well as their peers so maybe we’ll be pleasantly surprised, I’m just going to need to see them do it first.
The Cowboys are also in the running for some five other high school and junior college prospects who haven’t signed yet. The coup (if you can call it that) is pretty impressive for T. Ford, but that’s also a rather thin group of 10 guys, half of which have never played a collegiate basketball game before.
Last year OSU averaged 71 PPG and won six conference games. I said earlier that with the way Ford runs his team I’d assume they want to get that to the 78-80 PPG to have a chance at 9-10 wins in the Big 12, so let’s do the math:
I think some of the pressure on Keiton will be alleviated and he can get to 15 PPG. Markel and JPO will certainly get more looks and be better in their second years and I think could combine for 25 PPG. So that gets us to 40. Some PG combo of Gulley, Dowell, and Guerrero should be able to get to 15 PPG which leaves us at 55 with Nash, Cobbins, Williams, and Jurick to make up the difference.
Let’s say Cobbins plays like the “skinny Marcus Morris” Moses predicted he’d be and puts up an 8 and 8 line and Williams throws in 6 a game. Jurick’s not a scorer so we’ll give him 4 which makes 73. And we haven’t touched Nash yet. And Nash is going to average 7 points a game. I promise.
So maybe OSU won’t be as bad off as I thought, or maybe I royally butchered the numbers along the way, or maybe Keiton can’t reach fifteen a game. Whatever the case, I’m ready to watch Ford open this team up and let it reveal itself. Is it basketball season yet? Is it football season yet?
What are we going to do all Summer?!?!