Three Things to Know ahead of Oklahoma State’s Matchup with UCF

Oklahoma State is back from a bye week to host UCF and try to stay unbeaten in the Big 12

The Cowboys laid low this weekend while the Big 12 tore itself apart. Now the Pokes are one of just five teams without a conference loss. Let’s take a look at three things to know about the matchup between OSU and UCF.

1. The Knights Can Slow Teams Down

UCF’s offense is not exactly a world-beater, but its defense has kept the Knights in games, consistently holding teams below their scoring average.

UCF held Pittsburgh to just 12 points (in heavy rain) in a 12-7 loss. The Panthers are currently ranked 24th nationally, scoring 38.4 points per game. The Knights held TCU to 13 points. The Frogs also aren’t blowing the doors off teams, but they are averaging 25.4 points. And then in a loss at Houston last weekend, UCF held the Cougars to 27. Houston’s 41 points per game is ranked 17th in the FBS.

A big part of that has been UCF’s ability to slow down the run game. Their overall rushing defense gets knocked down a peg by a strange outlier. The Knights allowed 203 yards at 5.8 yards per carry to Georgia State. Granted, those Panthers are a Top 30 rushing team in the FBS. No other team has sniffed 200 yards on the ground or managed more than 3.5 ypc against the Knights.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Knights’ run defense has an 89.0 rating, their best across the board and 28th nationally. Their overall defensive rating of 88.9 comes in at No. 29. For the sake of comparison, Oregon is rated above UCF in both categories (90.6 defense, 91.4 run defense), and the Cowboys rushed for 237 yards and scored 39 points on the Ducks. It’s not exactly a one-for-one swap, but maybe the Cowboys are set up to score points on good defenses too.

If UCF gives OSU issues there, it will be up to Eric Morris and Drew Mestemaker to try to stretch that defense with their dynamic passing attack like they did against West Virginia, specifically in the second half.

2. The Knights Can Take It Back

UCF is tied for the league lead (and Top 10 nationally) with 10 turnovers gained over five games. Four fumbles and six interceptions.

The Knights’ defense had three interceptions against Georgia State and then took two fumbles and had two picks against TCU. The Cowboys are on the wrong end of that stat as well. OSU is tied for second most turnovers in the Big 12 with three lost fumbles and five interceptions.

The caveat here is that Drew Mestemaker’s interception rate has been trending in the right direction. After two picks against Tulsa, the two he had against Oregon were both tipped at the line of scrimmage. He had none against Murray State and one at West Virginia.

A big part of it comes down to decision-making, and he’s been on the right side of that more often than not the last three games. But that’s not to say it couldn’t be an issue, and this UCF defense is obviously skilled at dispossessing QBs. Turnovers can be an equalizer for a team like UCF that doesn’t put up points like the Cowboys do. And it’s help keep them in those games.

3. UCF Might Need Those Turnovers

UCF, again, has not been running up the scoreboard on teams. They dropped 73 points on FCS opponent Bethune-Cookman and 44 on Georgia State, but against Power Four teams the Knights are averaging just 15 points per game. And it comes down to both phases of their offense.

The Knights lost their starting quarterback in Week 2 when Alonzo Barnett II went down. He’s yet to return. Keyone Jenkins has been an efficient passer, completing 69.7% of his throws, but he’s not the sling-it-around-the-yard guy. UCF is 15th in the conference, ahead of only West Virginia averaging just 178.2 passing yards per game.

Their rushing game has been less than dominant, though Jenkins is a threat to run it himself. In both of their losses, the Knights have struggled to run the ball effectively. Against No. 25 Pittsburgh, UCF rushed for just 20 yards on 22 attempts. That’s less than a yard per carry. In the loss at Houston last week, the Knights managed just 73 rushing yards at 3.5 per carry. Even in their win against TCU, they totaled 106 rushing yards at 3.2 ypc.