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Bedlam Will Cut List of Playoff Suitors from 14 to 13 This Weekend

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There is a lot at stake this weekend in Stillwater. The Big 12 conference championship passenger’s seat is up for grabs. So is a potential move to the top three or four of the Heisman Trophy favorites. And don’t look now, but both OU and Oklahoma State are still alive for the College Football Playoffs.

I’m stealing this from our friends at SB Nation, but I loved this post on who’s still alive for the final four. The premise is that if you’re a Power 5 team with more than one loss, you’re out. If you’re any other team with more than zero losses, you’re out. It’s slightly more complex than that, but we don’t have time (we have to figure out how OSU is going to neutralize Obo and not let Mason’s extremities be fed to the man).

So these are the 14 teams that are still alive.

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Georgia
  4. Miami
  5. Notre Dame
  6. Ohio State
  7. Oklahoma
  8. Oklahoma State
  9. Penn State
  10. TCU
  11. UCF
  12. Virginia Tech
  13. Washington
  14. Wisconsin

That’s it. Four of those teams will make up the Playoff in January, and the other 10 will play in a variety of other bowls. After this weekend, the list will be (at least) one team shorter as one-loss OSU and OU play each other. It will be two teams shorter after the following week when TCU and OU face off in Norman. Miami and Virginia Tech also play this weekend, but Miami can afford a loss. Virginia Tech cannot.

For as much as we’ve complained about this year, it’s still fun to be one of the 14 teams still alive for the CFP on Halloween Eve. And if you look at the 538 CFP model, not only is Oklahoma State alive, but it still has a decent shot to win out and make it to CFP.

Here’s what that model currently looks like untouched.

Screen Shot 2017-10-30 at 2.44.30 PM.jpg

And here’s what happens if OSU beats OU on Saturday.

Screen Shot 2017-10-30 at 2.44.59 PM.jpg

And finally if OSU wins out.

Screen Shot 2017-10-30 at 2.46.01 PM.jpg

It would be truly incredible if OSU went 12-1 this year, won the Big 12 and still got shut out. In the three-year history of this thing, no one-loss conference champion has ever been shut out of the CFP, but Notre Dame is causing some issues this season (so is Wisconsin’s schedule). OSU ushered in the four-team playoff so why not the eight team as well?

We have a lot of football between now and December and all of that is likely to get worked out over the stretch run as Oklahoma State tries to steady itself for one final great ride with Rudolph and Washington. It all hinges on this Saturday’s game against OU, though, and everybody knows it.

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